Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 20/09, 14:30

Prediction: A.C. Ospitaletto vs Cittadella

Team pages: A.C. Ospitaletto · Cittadella

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

A.C. Ospitaletto1.34

Cittadella1.48

1X2

33% 28% 39%

A.C. Ospitaletto Draw Cittadella

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

A.C. Ospitaletto 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWDWWD

Cittadella 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

A.C. Ospitaletto 0–1–1 Cittadella (2 last)

Cittadella2-2A.C. Ospitaletto
A.C. Ospitaletto1-2Cittadella

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · A.C. Ospitaletto 1538 · Cittadella 1559

	A.C. Ospitaletto	Draw	Cittadella
Our model	33%	27%	39%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	A.C. Ospitaletto	Cittadella
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75
X	3.00 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.11
2	2.35 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.68 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:39 +17’	2.80	3.00	2.35
18:44 +29’	2.75▼	3.10▲	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +227’	2.80	3.17	2.47
07:05 +15’	2.82▲	3.11▼	2.49▲
22:02 +61’	2.61▼	3.11	2.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

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Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · A.C. Ospitaletto 0–1–1 Cittadella

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Cittadella	2-2 HT 1-1	A.C. Ospitaletto
18/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A	A.C. Ospitaletto	1-2 HT 0-1	Cittadella

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	5	5	0	0	9	2	15
2	A.C. Ospitaletto	5	3	2	0	11	4	11
3	Union Brescia	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
4	Alcione Milano	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
5	Trento	5	2	3	0	5	3	9
6	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	5	2	3	0	4	2	9
7	Treviso	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
8	Lecco	5	2	1	2	4	3	7
9	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
10	Pro Vercelli	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
11	Novara	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
11	Albinoleffe	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
13	AC Carpi	5	1	2	2	8	10	5
14	Desenzano	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
14	Lumezzane	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
16	US Pergolettese	5	1	2	2	1	3	5
17	Juventus U23	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
18	US Folgore Caratese	5	0	2	3	5	8	2
19	Renate	5	0	2	3	4	8	2
20	Giana Erminio	5	0	1	4	4	8	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	A.C. Ospitaletto	Cittadella
AC Carpi	2-2 D	2-1 W
Juventus U23	3-0 W	2-0 W
Lumezzane	2-0 W	2-1 W
Novara	0-2 L	1-0 W
Giana Erminio	3-2 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: A.C. Ospitaletto (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

A.C. Ospitaletto

WDWLLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
13/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
06/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
31/08	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
22/08	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
19/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/04	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
06/04	Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
28/03	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	3-2	2	1	W

Cittadella

WLLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
13/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
31/08	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
25/04	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
19/04	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
12/04	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
03/04	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
29/03	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in A.C. Ospitaletto vs Cittadella?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cittadella win (39%). Probabilities: A.C. Ospitaletto 33%, draw 28%, Cittadella 39%.

How many goals are expected in A.C. Ospitaletto vs Cittadella?

The model expects 2.82 goals (A.C. Ospitaletto 1.34 · Cittadella 1.48), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in A.C. Ospitaletto vs Cittadella?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.