Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 20/09, 20:30

Prediction: Alcione Milano vs Union Brescia

Team pages: Alcione Milano · Union Brescia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Alcione Milano0.81

Union Brescia1.28

1X2

23% 29% 47%

Alcione Milano Draw Union Brescia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Alcione Milano 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWDDWD

Union Brescia 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWDD

Head-to-head

Alcione Milano 1–1–0 Union Brescia (2 last)

Alcione Milano0-0Union Brescia
Union Brescia0-1Alcione Milano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alcione Milano 1484 · Union Brescia 1558

	Alcione Milano	Draw	Union Brescia
Our model	22%	31%	46%
Market	24%	28%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Brescia (rating 1484 vs 1558).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alcione Milano	Union Brescia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.25

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.22 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +5’	3.70	3.25	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +280’	4.24	3.06	1.93
12:13 +290’	4.22▼	3.05▼	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alcione Milano 1–1–0 Union Brescia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Alcione Milano	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Brescia
09/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Union Brescia	0-1 HT 0-0	Alcione Milano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	5	5	0	0	9	2	15
2	A.C. Ospitaletto	5	3	2	0	11	4	11
3	Union Brescia	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
4	Alcione Milano	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
5	Trento	5	2	3	0	5	3	9
6	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	5	2	3	0	4	2	9
7	Treviso	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
8	Lecco	5	2	1	2	4	3	7
9	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
10	Pro Vercelli	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
11	Novara	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
11	Albinoleffe	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
13	AC Carpi	5	1	2	2	8	10	5
14	Desenzano	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
14	Lumezzane	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
16	US Pergolettese	5	1	2	2	1	3	5
17	Juventus U23	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
18	US Folgore Caratese	5	0	2	3	5	8	2
19	Renate	5	0	2	3	4	8	2
20	Giana Erminio	5	0	1	4	4	8	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alcione Milano	Union Brescia
Treviso	1-1 D	2-2 D
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	0-0 D	2-0 W
Trento	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Brescia (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alcione Milano

DLLDWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
13/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-2	4	4	W
07/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/08	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
25/04	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	2	9	W
19/04	Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
10/04	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	0	6	L
04/04	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
28/03	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	7	3	D

Union Brescia

DWLWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
13/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/08	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
25/04	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/04	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	11	3	W
11/04	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
03/04	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
29/03	Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-1	6	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alcione Milano vs Union Brescia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Brescia win (47%). Probabilities: Alcione Milano 23%, draw 29%, Union Brescia 47%.

How many goals are expected in Alcione Milano vs Union Brescia?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Alcione Milano 0.81 · Union Brescia 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Alcione Milano vs Union Brescia?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.