Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 21/09, 20:30

Prediction: AC Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Lumezzane

Team pages: AC Dolomiti Bellunesi · Lumezzane

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi1.08

Lumezzane0.92

1X2

38% 32% 30%

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw Lumezzane

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLDWDWDD

Lumezzane 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWLDD

Head-to-head

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 1–1 Lumezzane (2 last)

Lumezzane3-0AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi2-0Lumezzane

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 1519 · Lumezzane 1511

	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	Draw	Lumezzane
Our model	37%	33%	29%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	Lumezzane
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.35
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.02
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +4’	2.30	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +5’	2.35	3.02	3.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 1–0–1 Lumezzane

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	3-0 HT 2-0	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
13/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	2-0 HT 1-0	Lumezzane

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	5	5	0	0	9	2	15
2	A.C. Ospitaletto	5	3	2	0	11	4	11
3	Union Brescia	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
4	Alcione Milano	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
5	Trento	5	2	3	0	5	3	9
6	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	5	2	3	0	4	2	9
7	Treviso	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
8	Lecco	5	2	1	2	4	3	7
9	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
10	Pro Vercelli	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
11	Novara	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
11	Albinoleffe	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
13	AC Carpi	5	1	2	2	8	10	5
14	Desenzano	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
14	Lumezzane	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
16	US Pergolettese	5	1	2	2	1	3	5
17	Juventus U23	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
18	US Folgore Caratese	5	0	2	3	5	8	2
19	Renate	5	0	2	3	4	8	2
20	Giana Erminio	5	0	1	4	4	8	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	Lumezzane
Renate	0-0 D	2-2 D
Albinoleffe	0-0 D	1-1 D
Giana Erminio	2-1 W	1-0 W
Union Brescia	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lumezzane (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

LDLLDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
13/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
06/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
30/08	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
24/08	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
25/04	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/04	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/04	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-4	8	1	L
06/04	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
28/03	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	10	4	L

Lumezzane

DWWDWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
13/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
30/08	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/08	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
25/04	Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A	4-0	4-1	7	1	W
19/04	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-2	1	4	D
11/04	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
03/04	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
28/03	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	11	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Lumezzane?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Dolomiti Bellunesi win (38%). Probabilities: AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 38%, draw 32%, Lumezzane 30%.

How many goals are expected in AC Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Lumezzane?

The model expects 2 goals (AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.08 · Lumezzane 0.92), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Lumezzane?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.