Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 21/09, 20:30
Prediction: Trento vs Pro Vercelli
Team pages: Trento · Pro Vercelli
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Trento1.53
Pro Vercelli0.84
1X2
Trento
Draw
Pro Vercelli
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Trento
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Pro Vercelli
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Trento
4–1–1
Pro Vercelli
(6 last)
- Pro Vercelli1-3Trento
- Trento1-0Pro Vercelli
- Pro Vercelli0-0Trento
- Trento1-0Pro Vercelli
- Trento1-0Pro Vercelli
- Pro Vercelli2-0Trento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trento 1532 · Pro Vercelli 1481
| Trento | Draw | Pro Vercelli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trento (rating 1532 vs 1481).
- H2H favours Trento: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Trento | Pro Vercelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.4 | 3.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trento 4–1–1 Pro Vercelli
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A | Pro Vercelli | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Trento |
| 13/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Trento | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Pro Vercelli |
| 01/03/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Pro Vercelli | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Trento |
| 20/10/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Trento | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Pro Vercelli |
| 13/04/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Trento | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Pro Vercelli |
| 08/12/23 Italy Serie C Group A | Pro Vercelli | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Trento |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Alcione Milano | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Trento | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Treviso | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | Lecco | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Pro Vercelli | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 11 | Novara | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 11 | Albinoleffe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 13 | AC Carpi | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| 14 | Desenzano | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | US Pergolettese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Juventus U23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 5 |
| 18 | US Folgore Caratese | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
| 19 | Renate | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 20 | Giana Erminio | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Trento | Pro Vercelli |
|---|---|---|
| Desenzano | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Treviso | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Renate | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Inter Milan U23 | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Alcione Milano | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Trento (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Treviso Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 19/04 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 12/04 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/04 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Pro Vercelli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Treviso Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Trento vs Pro Vercelli?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Trento win (53%). Probabilities: Trento 53%, draw 28%, Pro Vercelli 20%.
How many goals are expected in Trento vs Pro Vercelli?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Trento 1.53 · Pro Vercelli 0.84), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Trento vs Pro Vercelli?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.