Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 17/09, 18:30

Prediction: Albinoleffe vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Team pages: Albinoleffe · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Albinoleffe1.25

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1.07

1X2

40% 30% 31%

Albinoleffe Draw ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Albinoleffe 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWDLD

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDWLL

Head-to-head

Albinoleffe 1–4–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (6 last)

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo2-1Albinoleffe
Albinoleffe2-0ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0-0Albinoleffe
Albinoleffe1-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-1Albinoleffe
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0-0Albinoleffe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Albinoleffe 1537 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1552

	Albinoleffe	Draw	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Albinoleffe	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.3	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.04

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:33 +8’	2.25	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:55 +45’	2.39	3.02	3.04
07:09 +42’	2.40▲	3.01▼	3.04
08:37 +5’	2.39▼	3.03▲	3.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Albinoleffe 1–4–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Italy Serie C Cup	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	2-1 HT 2-0	Albinoleffe
15/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	2-0 HT 1-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
05/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	0-0 HT 0-0	Albinoleffe
04/01/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	1-1 HT 0-1	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
02/09/24 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-1 HT 0-0	Albinoleffe
05/03/24 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	0-0 HT 0-0	Albinoleffe

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	4	4	0	0	7	2	12
2	A.C. Ospitaletto	4	3	1	0	9	2	10
3	Union Brescia	4	3	1	0	5	1	10
4	Alcione Milano	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
5	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
6	Trento	4	2	2	0	3	1	8
7	Treviso	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
8	Desenzano	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
8	Albinoleffe	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
10	Juventus U23	4	1	2	1	4	6	5
11	Novara	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
12	Pro Vercelli	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
13	Lecco	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
14	AC Carpi	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
15	Lumezzane	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
16	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
17	US Pergolettese	4	1	1	2	1	3	4
18	US Folgore Caratese	4	0	1	3	5	8	1
19	Renate	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
20	Giana Erminio	4	0	0	4	2	6	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Albinoleffe	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	0-0 D	2-1 W
A.C. Ospitaletto	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Albinoleffe

WDWLWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
06/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
31/08	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
22/08	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
25/04	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	6	9	L
19/04	Triestina Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
12/04	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-3	10	2	L
06/04	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
28/03	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
20/03	Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-1	2	3	W

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

WWDWWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
06/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
30/08	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/08	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
19/04	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-2	3	3	W
12/04	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
03/04	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/03	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/03	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Albinoleffe vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Albinoleffe win (40%). Probabilities: Albinoleffe 40%, draw 30%, ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 31%.

How many goals are expected in Albinoleffe vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Albinoleffe 1.25 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1.07), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Albinoleffe vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.