Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 27/09, 14:30

Prediction: Union Brescia vs AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

Team pages: Union Brescia · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Union Brescia1.86

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi0.49

1X2

71% 21% 9%

Union Brescia Draw AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Brescia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWDDW

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDWDWDDL

Head-to-head

Union Brescia 3–0 AC Dolomiti Bellunesi (3 last)

Union Brescia2-0AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi0-1Union Brescia
Union Brescia2-1AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Brescia 1590 · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 1511

	Union Brescia	Draw	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
Our model	70%	22%	8%
Market	71%	20%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Brescia (rating 1590 vs 1511).
H2H favours Union Brescia: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Brescia	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	0/90/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	1.4 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X4.50

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.27▲	Bet365 1.27
X	5.00 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	13.00 → 10.00▼	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +2’	1.20	5.00	13.00
16:24 +8’	1.27▲	4.50▼	10.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Brescia 3–0–0 AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Union Brescia	2-0 HT 1-0	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
14/12/25 Italy Serie C Group A	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	0-1 HT 0-0	Union Brescia
17/08/25 Italy Serie C Cup	Union Brescia	2-1 HT 1-1	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	6	6	0	0	10	2	18
2	Union Brescia	6	4	2	0	11	3	14
3	Trento	6	3	3	0	9	3	12
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	6	3	2	1	11	5	11
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	6	3	1	2	7	7	10
6	Treviso	6	2	3	1	7	6	9
7	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	6	2	3	1	5	4	9
8	Alcione Milano	6	2	3	1	9	10	9
9	Albinoleffe	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Lecco	6	2	2	2	4	3	8
11	Lumezzane	6	2	2	2	6	7	8
12	Novara	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
13	AC Carpi	6	1	3	2	10	12	6
14	Desenzano	6	1	3	2	4	6	6
15	US Pergolettese	6	1	3	2	1	3	6
16	Pro Vercelli	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Juventus U23	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
18	US Folgore Caratese	6	0	3	3	6	9	3
19	Giana Erminio	6	0	2	4	5	9	2
20	Renate	6	0	2	4	5	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Brescia	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
Alcione Milano	4-0 W	0-0 D
Trento	0-0 D	0-0 D
Lumezzane	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Union Brescia (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Brescia

WLWWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-0	8	2	W
17/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
13/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/08	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
25/04	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/04	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	11	3	W
11/04	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
03/04	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-1	4	5	W

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

DLLDWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
13/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
06/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
30/08	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
24/08	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
25/04	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/04	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/04	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-4	8	1	L
06/04	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-1	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Brescia vs AC Dolomiti Bellunesi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Brescia win (71%). Probabilities: Union Brescia 71%, draw 21%, AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 9%.

How many goals are expected in Union Brescia vs AC Dolomiti Bellunesi?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Union Brescia 1.86 · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 0.49), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Brescia vs AC Dolomiti Bellunesi?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.