Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 26/09, 14:30
Prediction: US Pergolettese vs Trento
Team pages: US Pergolettese · Trento
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.79Total
US Pergolettese0.64
Trento1.15
1X2
US Pergolettese
Draw
Trento
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-1 18%
Recent form · 10 last
US Pergolettese
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Trento
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
US Pergolettese
2–3–1
Trento
(6 last)
- US Pergolettese1-2Trento
- Trento0-0US Pergolettese
- Trento1-1US Pergolettese
- US Pergolettese0-0Trento
- Trento1-3US Pergolettese
- US Pergolettese2-0Trento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · US Pergolettese 1493 · Trento 1545
| US Pergolettese | Draw | Trento | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 34% | 47% |
| Market | 22% | 28% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trento (rating 1493 vs 1545).
- H2H favours US Pergolettese: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| US Pergolettese | Trento | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.7 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · US Pergolettese 2–3–1 Trento
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Trento |
| 25/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Trento | 0-0 HT 0-0 | US Pergolettese |
| 21/02/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Trento | 1-1 HT 0-0 | US Pergolettese |
| 13/10/24 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Trento |
| 18/02/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Trento | 1-3 HT 0-1 | US Pergolettese |
| 14/10/23 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Trento |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Trento | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Treviso | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Alcione Milano | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| 9 | Albinoleffe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | Lecco | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lumezzane | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 12 | Novara | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | AC Carpi | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 6 |
| 14 | Desenzano | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 15 | US Pergolettese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Pro Vercelli | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 17 | Juventus U23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
| 18 | US Folgore Caratese | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 20 | Renate | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | US Pergolettese | Trento |
|---|---|---|
| Lecco | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Union Brescia | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Cittadella | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Trento (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
US Pergolettese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 06/04 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
Trento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/09 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Treviso Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 19/04 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 12/04 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/04 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in US Pergolettese vs Trento?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Trento win (48%). Probabilities: US Pergolettese 21%, draw 31%, Trento 48%.
How many goals are expected in US Pergolettese vs Trento?
The model expects 1.79 goals (US Pergolettese 0.64 · Trento 1.15), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in US Pergolettese vs Trento?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.