Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 26/09, 17:30

Prediction: Novara vs A.C. Ospitaletto

Team pages: Novara · A.C. Ospitaletto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Novara1.31

A.C. Ospitaletto1.12

1X2

40% 30% 31%

Novara Draw A.C. Ospitaletto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Novara 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWLDD

A.C. Ospitaletto 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Novara 1–1 A.C. Ospitaletto (2 last)

A.C. Ospitaletto0-2Novara
Novara0-3A.C. Ospitaletto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Novara 1472 · A.C. Ospitaletto 1538

	Novara	Draw	A.C. Ospitaletto
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	40%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours A.C. Ospitaletto (rating 1472 vs 1538).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Novara	A.C. Ospitaletto
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +2’	2.25	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Novara 1–0–1 A.C. Ospitaletto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Italy Serie C Group A	A.C. Ospitaletto	0-2 HT 0-2	Novara
21/12/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Novara	0-3 HT 0-0	A.C. Ospitaletto

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	6	6	0	0	10	2	18
2	Union Brescia	6	4	2	0	11	3	14
3	Trento	6	3	3	0	9	3	12
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	6	3	2	1	11	5	11
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	6	3	1	2	7	7	10
6	Treviso	6	2	3	1	7	6	9
7	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	6	2	3	1	5	4	9
8	Alcione Milano	6	2	3	1	9	10	9
9	Albinoleffe	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Lecco	6	2	2	2	4	3	8
11	Lumezzane	6	2	2	2	6	7	8
12	Novara	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
13	AC Carpi	6	1	3	2	10	12	6
14	Desenzano	6	1	3	2	4	6	6
15	US Pergolettese	6	1	3	2	1	3	6
16	Pro Vercelli	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Juventus U23	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
18	US Folgore Caratese	6	0	3	3	6	9	3
19	Giana Erminio	6	0	2	4	5	9	2
20	Renate	6	0	2	4	5	10	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Novara	A.C. Ospitaletto
AC Carpi	2-2 D	2-2 D
Lumezzane	0-0 D	2-0 W
Juventus U23	0-1 L	3-0 W
Cittadella	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: A.C. Ospitaletto (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Novara

LLLWLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
17/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
13/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
07/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
31/08	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	8	4	D
22/08	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/04	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
19/04	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
11/04	Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-3	8	2	L
03/04	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-3	6	3	L

A.C. Ospitaletto

DWLLWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
17/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
13/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
06/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
31/08	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
22/08	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
19/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/04	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
06/04	Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Novara vs A.C. Ospitaletto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Novara win (40%). Probabilities: Novara 40%, draw 30%, A.C. Ospitaletto 31%.

How many goals are expected in Novara vs A.C. Ospitaletto?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Novara 1.31 · A.C. Ospitaletto 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Novara vs A.C. Ospitaletto?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.