Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 26/09, 20:30
Prediction: Cittadella vs Lecco
Team pages: Cittadella · Lecco
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Cittadella1.52
Lecco0.73
1X2
Cittadella
Draw
Lecco
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Cittadella
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Lecco
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cittadella
3–1–0
Lecco
(4 last)
- Cittadella2-1Lecco
- Lecco0-1Cittadella
- Lecco1-1Cittadella
- Cittadella2-1Lecco
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cittadella 1586 · Lecco 1463
| Cittadella | Draw | Lecco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cittadella (rating 1586 vs 1463).
- H2H favours Cittadella: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cittadella | Lecco | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.4 | 1.6 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cittadella 3–1–0 Lecco
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A | Cittadella | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Lecco |
| 23/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Lecco | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cittadella |
| 01/04/24 Italy Serie B | Lecco | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Cittadella |
| 01/10/23 Italy Serie B | Cittadella | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Lecco |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Trento | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Treviso | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Alcione Milano | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| 9 | Albinoleffe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | Lecco | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lumezzane | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 12 | Novara | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | AC Carpi | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 6 |
| 14 | Desenzano | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 15 | US Pergolettese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Pro Vercelli | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 17 | Juventus U23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
| 18 | US Folgore Caratese | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 20 | Renate | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cittadella | Lecco |
|---|---|---|
| Lumezzane | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| US Pergolettese | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Giana Erminio | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Trento | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cittadella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/09 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/04 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Lecco
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/09 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 31/08 | Treviso Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 10/04 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 03/04 | Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cittadella vs Lecco?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cittadella win (55%). Probabilities: Cittadella 55%, draw 27%, Lecco 17%.
How many goals are expected in Cittadella vs Lecco?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Cittadella 1.52 · Lecco 0.73), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Lecco?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.