Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 27/09, 20:30

Prediction: Albinoleffe vs Alcione Milano

Team pages: Albinoleffe · Alcione Milano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Albinoleffe1.58

Alcione Milano1.15

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Albinoleffe Draw Alcione Milano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Albinoleffe 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDLDLW

Alcione Milano 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDDWDL

Head-to-head

Albinoleffe 3–1 Alcione Milano (4 last)

Alcione Milano2-1Albinoleffe
Albinoleffe2-0Alcione Milano
Albinoleffe1-0Alcione Milano
Alcione Milano0-2Albinoleffe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Albinoleffe 1516 · Alcione Milano 1454

	Albinoleffe	Draw	Alcione Milano
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Albinoleffe (rating 1516 vs 1454).
H2H favours Albinoleffe: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Albinoleffe	Alcione Milano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +7’	2.00	3.10	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Albinoleffe 3–0–1 Alcione Milano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Alcione Milano	2-1 HT 1-0	Albinoleffe
20/12/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	2-0 HT 2-0	Alcione Milano
18/04/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	1-0 HT 0-0	Alcione Milano
08/12/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Alcione Milano	0-2 HT 0-0	Albinoleffe

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	6	6	0	0	10	2	18
2	Union Brescia	6	4	2	0	11	3	14
3	Trento	6	3	3	0	9	3	12
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	6	3	2	1	11	5	11
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	6	3	1	2	7	7	10
6	Treviso	6	2	3	1	7	6	9
7	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	6	2	3	1	5	4	9
8	Alcione Milano	6	2	3	1	9	10	9
9	Albinoleffe	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Lecco	6	2	2	2	4	3	8
11	Lumezzane	6	2	2	2	6	7	8
12	Novara	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
13	AC Carpi	6	1	3	2	10	12	6
14	Desenzano	6	1	3	2	4	6	6
15	US Pergolettese	6	1	3	2	1	3	6
16	Pro Vercelli	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Juventus U23	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
18	US Folgore Caratese	6	0	3	3	6	9	3
19	Giana Erminio	6	0	2	4	5	9	2
20	Renate	6	0	2	4	5	10	2

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Albinoleffe

WLWLWDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	5-3	1	2	W
17/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
13/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
06/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
31/08	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
22/08	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
25/04	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	6	9	L
19/04	Triestina Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
12/04	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-3	10	2	L
06/04	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-0	4	4	W

Alcione Milano

LLDWWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
17/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
13/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-2	4	4	W
07/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/08	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
25/04	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	2	9	W
19/04	Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
10/04	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	0	6	L
04/04	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Albinoleffe vs Alcione Milano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Albinoleffe win (46%). Probabilities: Albinoleffe 46%, draw 28%, Alcione Milano 26%.

How many goals are expected in Albinoleffe vs Alcione Milano?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Albinoleffe 1.58 · Alcione Milano 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Albinoleffe vs Alcione Milano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.