Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 04/10, 17:30

Prediction: AC Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara

Team pages: AC Dolomiti Bellunesi · Novara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi1

Novara0.99

1X2

35% 32% 34%

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw Novara

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWDDLD

Novara 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLDDL

Head-to-head

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–2–0 Novara (2 last)

Novara1-1AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi1-1Novara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 1514 · Novara 1466

	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	Draw	Novara
Our model	34%	34%	33%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Dolomiti Bellunesi (rating 1514 vs 1466).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	Novara
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/90/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.5	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:45 +6’	2.55	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–2–0 Novara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Novara	1-1 HT 0-0	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
31/08/25 Italy Serie C Group A	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	1-1 HT 1-1	Novara

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	7	7	0	0	13	2	21
2	Union Brescia	7	4	3	0	12	4	15
3	A.C. Ospitaletto	7	4	2	1	13	5	14
4	Trento	7	3	4	0	9	3	13
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
6	Treviso	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
7	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	2	4	1	6	5	10
8	Alcione Milano	7	2	4	1	10	11	10
9	Albinoleffe	7	2	3	2	10	9	9
10	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
11	Lecco	7	2	2	3	4	6	8
12	Desenzano	7	1	4	2	4	6	7
13	US Pergolettese	7	1	4	2	1	3	7
14	US Folgore Caratese	7	1	3	3	8	10	6
15	Novara	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
16	AC Carpi	7	1	3	3	10	15	6
17	Pro Vercelli	7	1	3	3	6	11	6
18	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	7	13	6
19	Giana Erminio	7	0	3	4	6	10	3
20	Renate	7	0	2	5	5	11	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	Novara
Lumezzane	1-2 L	0-0 D
Renate	0-0 D	2-1 W
US Folgore Caratese	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Novara (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

LLDWDWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
21/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
13/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
06/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
30/08	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
24/08	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
25/04	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/04	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/04	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-4	8	1	L

Novara

LLWLDWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
20/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
17/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
13/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
07/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
31/08	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	8	4	D
22/08	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/04	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
19/04	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
11/04	Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-3	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Dolomiti Bellunesi win (35%). Probabilities: AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 35%, draw 32%, Novara 34%.

How many goals are expected in AC Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara?

The model expects 1.99 goals (AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 1 · Novara 0.99), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.