Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 03/10, 17:30
Prediction: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs US Pergolettese
Team pages: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo · US Pergolettese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.78Total
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1.15
US Pergolettese0.63
1X2
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Draw
US Pergolettese
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
1-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
US Pergolettese
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
4–2–0
US Pergolettese
(6 last)
- US Pergolettese0-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
- ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-0US Pergolettese
- US Pergolettese0-2ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
- ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-1US Pergolettese
- US Pergolettese1-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
- ASD Union Arzignanochiampo2-0US Pergolettese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1587 · US Pergolettese 1493
| ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | Draw | US Pergolettese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 34% | 19% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (rating 1587 vs 1493).
- H2H favours ASD Union Arzignanochiampo: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | US Pergolettese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.3 | 1 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 4–2–0 US Pergolettese
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 0-1 HT 0-1 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo |
| 08/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | US Pergolettese |
| 23/03/25 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 0-2 HT 0-1 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo |
| 09/11/24 Italy Serie C Group A | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | US Pergolettese |
| 07/04/24 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 1-1 HT 0-1 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo |
| 03/12/23 Italy Serie C Group A | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | US Pergolettese |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Trento | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Treviso | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Alcione Milano | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 9 | Albinoleffe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 11 | Lecco | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| 12 | Desenzano | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | US Pergolettese | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | US Folgore Caratese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 15 | Novara | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 16 | AC Carpi | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 6 |
| 17 | Pro Vercelli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 20 | Renate | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/09 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
US Pergolettese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs US Pergolettese?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Union Arzignanochiampo win (49%). Probabilities: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 49%, draw 31%, US Pergolettese 21%.
How many goals are expected in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs US Pergolettese?
The model expects 1.78 goals (ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1.15 · US Pergolettese 0.63), with a 59% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs US Pergolettese?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.