Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 03/10, 20:30

Prediction: A.C. Ospitaletto vs Renate

Team pages: A.C. Ospitaletto · Renate

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

A.C. Ospitaletto1.61

Renate1.18

1X2

46% 28% 26%

A.C. Ospitaletto Draw Renate

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

A.C. Ospitaletto 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWWDLW

Renate 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLDDLL

Head-to-head

A.C. Ospitaletto 1–1–0 Renate (2 last)

A.C. Ospitaletto1-1Renate
Renate1-2A.C. Ospitaletto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · A.C. Ospitaletto 1549 · Renate 1431

	A.C. Ospitaletto	Draw	Renate
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours A.C. Ospitaletto (rating 1549 vs 1431).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	A.C. Ospitaletto	Renate
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
13:39 +3’	1.95	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · A.C. Ospitaletto 1–1–0 Renate

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A	A.C. Ospitaletto	1-1 HT 1-0	Renate
25/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	1-2 HT 1-1	A.C. Ospitaletto

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	7	7	0	0	13	2	21
2	Union Brescia	7	4	3	0	12	4	15
3	A.C. Ospitaletto	7	4	2	1	13	5	14
4	Trento	7	3	4	0	9	3	13
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
6	Treviso	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
7	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	2	4	1	6	5	10
8	Alcione Milano	7	2	4	1	10	11	10
9	Albinoleffe	7	2	3	2	10	9	9
10	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
11	Lecco	7	2	2	3	4	6	8
12	Desenzano	7	1	4	2	4	6	7
13	US Pergolettese	7	1	4	2	1	3	7
14	US Folgore Caratese	7	1	3	3	8	10	6
15	Novara	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
16	AC Carpi	7	1	3	3	10	15	6
17	Pro Vercelli	7	1	3	3	6	11	6
18	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	7	13	6
19	Giana Erminio	7	0	3	4	6	10	3
20	Renate	7	0	2	5	5	11	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	A.C. Ospitaletto	Renate
Novara	2-0 W	1-2 L
Cittadella	0-1 L	0-1 L
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	3-1 W	1-2 L
Lumezzane	2-0 W	2-2 D
Pro Vercelli	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: A.C. Ospitaletto (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

A.C. Ospitaletto

WLLWDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
20/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
17/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
13/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
06/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
31/08	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
22/08	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
19/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/04	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	7	2	W

Renate

WDWLLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
20/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
17/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
13/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
07/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
31/08	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
21/08	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-3	8	6	L
25/04	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
19/04	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	3-3	4	7	D
13/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in A.C. Ospitaletto vs Renate?

According to our model, the most likely result is a A.C. Ospitaletto win (46%). Probabilities: A.C. Ospitaletto 46%, draw 28%, Renate 26%.

How many goals are expected in A.C. Ospitaletto vs Renate?

The model expects 2.79 goals (A.C. Ospitaletto 1.61 · Renate 1.18), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in A.C. Ospitaletto vs Renate?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.