Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 18/10, 17:30
Prediction: Albinoleffe vs Novara
Team pages: Albinoleffe · Novara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.53Total
Albinoleffe1.33
Novara1.21
1X2
Albinoleffe
Draw
Novara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Albinoleffe
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Novara
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Albinoleffe
2–3–1
Novara
(6 last)
- Novara2-2Albinoleffe
- Albinoleffe3-2Novara
- Albinoleffe1-1Novara
- Novara2-0Albinoleffe
- Albinoleffe0-0Novara
- Novara0-3Albinoleffe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Albinoleffe 1502 · Novara 1500
| Albinoleffe | Draw | Novara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Albinoleffe: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Albinoleffe | Novara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.5 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Albinoleffe 2–3–1 Novara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Albinoleffe |
| 28/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Albinoleffe | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Novara |
| 02/03/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Albinoleffe | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Novara |
| 19/10/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Albinoleffe |
| 10/03/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Albinoleffe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Novara |
| 04/11/23 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Albinoleffe |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Trento | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Treviso | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Lecco | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Desenzano | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 13 |
| 9 | Albinoleffe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 10 | Alcione Milano | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| 11 | Lumezzane | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| 12 | US Pergolettese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 13 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| 14 | Novara | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 9 |
| 15 | AC Carpi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 9 |
| 16 | Pro Vercelli | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 9 |
| 17 | Juventus U23 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 7 |
| 18 | US Folgore Caratese | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 5 |
| 20 | Renate | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Albinoleffe | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| Lumezzane | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Cittadella | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Juventus U23 | 5-3 W | 0-1 L |
| AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| AC Carpi | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| A.C. Ospitaletto | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Albinoleffe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 03/10 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 20/09 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
3-0 | 5-3 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 17/09 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
Novara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/10 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Albinoleffe vs Novara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Albinoleffe win (38%). Probabilities: Albinoleffe 38%, draw 29%, Novara 33%.
How many goals are expected in Albinoleffe vs Novara?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Albinoleffe 1.33 · Novara 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Albinoleffe vs Novara?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.