Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 25/10, 17:30
Prediction: US Pergolettese vs Lumezzane
Team pages: US Pergolettese · Lumezzane
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.02Total
US Pergolettese1.07
Lumezzane0.95
1X2
US Pergolettese
Draw
Lumezzane
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
US Pergolettese
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Lumezzane
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
US Pergolettese
3–3
Lumezzane
(6 last)
- US Pergolettese0-2Lumezzane
- Lumezzane2-3US Pergolettese
- US Pergolettese1-0Lumezzane
- Lumezzane0-2US Pergolettese
- US Pergolettese0-1Lumezzane
- Lumezzane1-0US Pergolettese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · US Pergolettese 1508 · Lumezzane 1495
| US Pergolettese | Draw | Lumezzane | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 33% | 30% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| US Pergolettese | Lumezzane | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.4 | 2.6 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · US Pergolettese 3–0–3 Lumezzane
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Lumezzane |
| 31/08/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Lumezzane | 2-3 HT 1-2 | US Pergolettese |
| 13/03/25 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lumezzane |
| 29/10/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Lumezzane | 0-2 HT 0-2 | US Pergolettese |
| 14/01/24 Italy Serie C Group A | US Pergolettese | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lumezzane |
| 10/09/23 Italy Serie C Group A | Lumezzane | 1-0 HT 0-0 | US Pergolettese |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Trento | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Treviso | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Alcione Milano | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | US Pergolettese | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Lecco | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| 11 | Desenzano | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| 13 | Novara | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 10 |
| 14 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Juventus U23 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 16 | Pro Vercelli | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 9 |
| 17 | AC Carpi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 9 |
| 18 | Giana Erminio | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 19 | US Folgore Caratese | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
| 20 | Renate | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | US Pergolettese | Lumezzane |
|---|---|---|
| A.C. Ospitaletto | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| AC Carpi | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| US Folgore Caratese | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Novara | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Juventus U23 | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Cittadella | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: US Pergolettese (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
US Pergolettese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Lumezzane
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/10 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 21/09 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 17/09 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in US Pergolettese vs Lumezzane?
According to our model, the most likely result is a US Pergolettese win (37%). Probabilities: US Pergolettese 37%, draw 31%, Lumezzane 31%.
How many goals are expected in US Pergolettese vs Lumezzane?
The model expects 2.02 goals (US Pergolettese 1.07 · Lumezzane 0.95), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in US Pergolettese vs Lumezzane?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.