Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: Desenzano vs Giana Erminio

Team pages: Desenzano · Giana Erminio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Desenzano1.2

Giana Erminio0.93

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Desenzano Draw Giana Erminio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Desenzano 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDDWWL

Giana Erminio 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDDDDW

Head-to-head

Desenzano 0–1–0 Giana Erminio (1 last)

Desenzano0-0Giana Erminio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Desenzano 1511 · Giana Erminio 1463

	Desenzano	Draw	Giana Erminio
Our model	41%	32%	27%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Desenzano (rating 1511 vs 1463).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Desenzano	Giana Erminio
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.88 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +3’	2.25	3.10	2.88
09:10 +6’	2.05▼	3.20▲	3.25▲
23:18 +5’	2.10▲	3.10▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Desenzano 0–1–0 Giana Erminio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Europe Friendlies	Desenzano	0-0 HT 0-0	Giana Erminio

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	17	4	27
2	Trento	10	5	5	0	15	5	20
3	Union Brescia	10	5	4	1	17	8	19
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	10	7	16
7	Alcione Milano	10	3	6	1	17	15	15
8	US Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	8	8	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	12	9	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	16	15	13
11	Desenzano	10	3	4	3	9	11	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	10	14	10
14	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	2	4	4	7	12	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	10	16	10
16	Pro Vercelli	10	2	3	5	8	18	9
17	AC Carpi	10	2	3	5	14	20	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	10	13	8
19	US Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	9	15	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	9	16	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Desenzano	Giana Erminio
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	2-0 W	1-2 L
US Folgore Caratese	2-1 W	1-1 D
Treviso	0-0 D	0-0 D
Lecco	1-3 L	0-1 L
Union Brescia	0-1 L	2-1 W
Trento	0-0 D	2-2 D
Pro Vercelli	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Desenzano

DDLWLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-3	1-4	6	4	L
10/10	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
03/10	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
26/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
21/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
17/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
13/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
06/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
31/08	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
23/08	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

Giana Erminio

LLLLDDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
04/10	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
26/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
20/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
17/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
06/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
30/08	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
22/08	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Desenzano vs Giana Erminio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Desenzano win (42%). Probabilities: Desenzano 42%, draw 30%, Giana Erminio 28%.

How many goals are expected in Desenzano vs Giana Erminio?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Desenzano 1.2 · Giana Erminio 0.93), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Desenzano vs Giana Erminio?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.