Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 25/10, 17:30
Prediction: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs Novara
Team pages: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo · Novara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1.3
Novara1.08
1X2
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Draw
Novara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Novara
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
1–2–3
Novara
(6 last)
- ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-1Novara
- Novara1-0ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
- Novara1-0ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
- ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0-2Novara
- ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0-0Novara
- Novara0-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1524 · Novara 1478
| ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | Draw | Novara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 30% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (rating 1524 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Novara: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | Novara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 1.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1–2–3 Novara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Novara |
| 17/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo |
| 05/04/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 1-0 HT 1-0 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo |
| 24/11/24 Italy Serie C Group A | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Novara |
| 17/02/24 Italy Serie C Group A | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Novara |
| 13/10/23 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 0-1 HT 0-1 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Trento | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Treviso | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Alcione Milano | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | US Pergolettese | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Lecco | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| 11 | Desenzano | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| 13 | Novara | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 10 |
| 14 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Juventus U23 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 16 | Pro Vercelli | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 9 |
| 17 | AC Carpi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 9 |
| 18 | Giana Erminio | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 19 | US Folgore Caratese | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
| 20 | Renate | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| Cittadella | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Juventus U23 | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| US Pergolettese | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| AC Carpi | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Renate | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Albinoleffe | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| A.C. Ospitaletto | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 27/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/09 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
Novara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/10 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs Novara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Union Arzignanochiampo win (41%). Probabilities: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 41%, draw 30%, Novara 30%.
How many goals are expected in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs Novara?
The model expects 2.38 goals (ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1.3 · Novara 1.08), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs Novara?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.