Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 25/10, 17:30

Prediction: Lecco vs US Folgore Caratese

Team pages: Lecco · US Folgore Caratese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Lecco1.49

US Folgore Caratese0.95

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Lecco Draw US Folgore Caratese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lecco 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDLDDW

US Folgore Caratese 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDWLLL

Head-to-head

Lecco 5–1–0 US Folgore Caratese (6 last)

US Folgore Caratese1-2Lecco
Lecco1-0US Folgore Caratese
Lecco2-0US Folgore Caratese
Lecco2-1US Folgore Caratese
US Folgore Caratese0-0Lecco
Lecco2-0US Folgore Caratese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lecco 1513 · US Folgore Caratese 1439

	Lecco	Draw	US Folgore Caratese
Our model	49%	29%	23%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lecco (rating 1513 vs 1439).
H2H favours Lecco: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lecco	US Folgore Caratese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.20

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 23:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.92 ★
X	3.50 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.22
2	4.75 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.05

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +8’	1.60	3.50	4.75
11:19 +6’	1.73▲	3.30▼	4.10▼
16:29 +11’	1.65▼	3.40▲	4.50▲
18:15 +25’	1.57▼	3.50▲	5.00▲
23:16 +8’	1.83▲	3.20▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:15 +2’	1.90	3.16	3.89
09:23 +56’	1.93▲	3.23▲	4.00▲
19:16 +44’	1.92▼	3.22▼	4.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lecco 5–1–0 US Folgore Caratese

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/19 Italy Serie D	US Folgore Caratese	1-2	Lecco
21/10/18 Italy Serie D	Lecco	1-0	US Folgore Caratese
09/09/18 Italy Serie D Cup	Lecco	2-0 HT 1-0	US Folgore Caratese
29/07/17 Europe Friendlies	Lecco	2-1 HT 2-0	US Folgore Caratese
17/04/16 Italy Serie D	US Folgore Caratese	0-0	Lecco
29/11/15 Italy Serie D	Lecco	2-0	US Folgore Caratese

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	17	4	27
2	Trento	10	5	5	0	15	5	20
3	Union Brescia	10	5	4	1	17	8	19
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	10	7	16
7	Alcione Milano	10	3	6	1	17	15	15
8	US Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	8	8	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	12	9	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	16	15	13
11	Desenzano	10	3	4	3	9	11	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	10	14	10
14	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	2	4	4	7	12	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	10	16	10
16	Pro Vercelli	10	2	3	5	8	18	9
17	AC Carpi	10	2	3	5	14	20	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	10	13	8
19	US Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	9	15	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	9	16	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lecco	US Folgore Caratese
Pro Vercelli	5-0 W	0-1 L
Alcione Milano	1-1 D	2-3 L
US Pergolettese	0-0 D	0-0 D
Desenzano	3-1 W	1-2 L
Giana Erminio	1-0 W	1-1 D
Trento	0-1 L	0-1 L
Treviso	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Lecco (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lecco

DLLWWDLDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	5-0	5	5	W
11/10	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
04/10	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
26/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-3	4	4	L
20/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
17/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
13/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
07/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
31/08	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
22/08	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

US Folgore Caratese

LDLLDDWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
11/10	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
03/10	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
26/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
20/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
17/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
13/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
07/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
24/08	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lecco vs US Folgore Caratese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lecco win (49%). Probabilities: Lecco 49%, draw 28%, US Folgore Caratese 23%.

How many goals are expected in Lecco vs US Folgore Caratese?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Lecco 1.49 · US Folgore Caratese 0.95), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lecco vs US Folgore Caratese?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.