Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 19/10, 20:30

Prediction: Cittadella vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Team pages: Cittadella · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Cittadella1.65

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0.8

1X2

57% 26% 17%

Cittadella Draw ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cittadella 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWLW

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Cittadella 1–1–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (3 last)

Cittadella2-2ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-0Cittadella
Cittadella1-0ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cittadella 1577 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1549

	Cittadella	Draw	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Our model	56%	27%	17%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cittadella	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.55▼	Pinn 1.61
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.89 ★
2	4.75 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:48 +6’	1.61	3.40	4.75
18:01 +19’	1.55▼	3.60▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:12 +9’	1.59	3.78	4.87
09:25 +59’	1.61▲	3.89▲	5.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cittadella 1–1–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Cittadella	2-2 HT 2-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
22/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-0 HT 1-0	Cittadella
15/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Cittadella	1-0 HT 1-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	9	8	0	1	16	4	24
2	Union Brescia	9	5	4	0	16	6	19
3	A.C. Ospitaletto	9	5	3	1	15	6	18
4	Trento	9	4	5	0	12	5	17
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	9	5	2	2	14	10	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	10	7	16
7	Lecco	10	3	4	3	12	9	13
8	Desenzano	9	3	4	2	8	7	13
9	Albinoleffe	9	3	3	3	14	13	12
10	Alcione Milano	9	2	6	1	13	14	12
11	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
12	US Pergolettese	9	2	5	2	5	6	11
13	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	2	4	3	7	9	10
14	Novara	9	2	3	4	8	12	9
15	AC Carpi	10	2	3	5	14	20	9
16	Pro Vercelli	10	2	3	5	8	18	9
17	Juventus U23	9	1	4	4	8	15	7
18	US Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	9	15	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	0	5	4	8	12	5
20	Renate	9	0	4	5	8	14	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cittadella	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Albinoleffe	1-2 L	2-1 W
Lecco	3-0 W	0-0 D
A.C. Ospitaletto	1-0 W	1-3 L
Juventus U23	2-0 W	2-1 W
AC Carpi	2-1 W	3-0 W
Renate	1-0 W	2-1 W
US Pergolettese	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cittadella (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cittadella

LWWWWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-2	11	4	L
26/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
13/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
31/08	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
25/04	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-2	4	2	L

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

WDWLLWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
03/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
27/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	3-0	2	6	W
20/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
13/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
06/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
30/08	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/08	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cittadella vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cittadella win (57%). Probabilities: Cittadella 57%, draw 26%, ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 17%.

How many goals are expected in Cittadella vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Cittadella 1.65 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 0.8), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cittadella vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.