Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 24/10, 17:30

Prediction: Alcione Milano vs AC Carpi

Team pages: Alcione Milano · AC Carpi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Alcione Milano1.74

AC Carpi1.34

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Alcione Milano Draw AC Carpi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alcione Milano 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLDDDW

AC Carpi 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDLLLW

Head-to-head

Alcione Milano 1–1 AC Carpi (2 last)

Alcione Milano6-1AC Carpi
AC Carpi1-0Alcione Milano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alcione Milano 1522 · AC Carpi 1473

	Alcione Milano	Draw	AC Carpi
Our model	46%	26%	29%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alcione Milano (rating 1522 vs 1473).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alcione Milano	AC Carpi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +6’	2.00	3.20	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alcione Milano 1–0–1 AC Carpi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/22 Italy Serie D	Alcione Milano	6-1 HT 4-0	AC Carpi
28/11/21 Italy Serie D	AC Carpi	1-0 HT 1-0	Alcione Milano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	17	4	27
2	Trento	10	5	5	0	15	5	20
3	Union Brescia	10	5	4	1	17	8	19
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	10	7	16
7	Alcione Milano	10	3	6	1	17	15	15
8	US Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	8	8	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	12	9	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	16	15	13
11	Desenzano	10	3	4	3	9	11	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	10	14	10
14	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	2	4	4	7	12	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	10	16	10
16	Pro Vercelli	10	2	3	5	8	18	9
17	AC Carpi	10	2	3	5	14	20	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	10	13	8
19	US Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	9	15	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	9	16	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alcione Milano	AC Carpi
Albinoleffe	1-1 D	1-0 W
Union Brescia	0-4 L	1-3 L
Pro Vercelli	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AC Carpi (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alcione Milano

WDDWDLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-1	2	4	W
11/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
04/10	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
27/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
17/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
13/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-2	4	4	W
07/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/08	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-1	5	6	W

AC Carpi

LDWLDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	3-1	5	1	W
10/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
03/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
27/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-3	6	6	L
20/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
17/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-2	0	7	D
13/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
06/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/08	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-3	5	4	D
21/08	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alcione Milano vs AC Carpi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alcione Milano win (45%). Probabilities: Alcione Milano 45%, draw 27%, AC Carpi 28%.

How many goals are expected in Alcione Milano vs AC Carpi?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Alcione Milano 1.74 · AC Carpi 1.34), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alcione Milano vs AC Carpi?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.