Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: Cittadella vs Treviso

Team pages: Cittadella · Treviso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Cittadella1.35

Treviso0.69

1X2

53% 29% 19%

Cittadella Draw Treviso

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Cittadella 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Treviso 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWDLWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cittadella 1578 · Treviso 1539

	Cittadella	Draw	Treviso
Our model	51%	31%	18%
Market	53%	27%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cittadella	Treviso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.30

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +21’	1.67	3.30	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	18	6	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	17	6	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	19	9	22
4	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	12	8	19
6	A.C. Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	18	11	18
7	US Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	10	9	17
8	Alcione Milano	11	3	6	2	18	17	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	14	11	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Desenzano	11	3	4	4	10	13	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	12	16	12
13	AC Carpi	11	3	3	5	16	21	12
14	Pro Vercelli	11	3	3	5	10	19	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	12	14	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	10	16	10
17	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	8	14	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	11	18	10
19	US Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	11	17	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	9	16	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cittadella	Treviso
Union Brescia	1-2 L	2-2 D
Lecco	3-0 W	1-0 W
A.C. Ospitaletto	1-0 W	0-1 L
Renate	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cittadella (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cittadella

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
19/10	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
10/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-2	11	4	L
26/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
13/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
31/08	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

Treviso

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
17/10	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
11/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	11	7	L
04/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
27/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
21/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
17/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
13/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
07/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/08	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cittadella vs Treviso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cittadella win (53%). Probabilities: Cittadella 53%, draw 29%, Treviso 19%.

How many goals are expected in Cittadella vs Treviso?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Cittadella 1.35 · Treviso 0.69), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Treviso?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.