Prediction: Novara vs Desenzano
Team pages: Novara · Desenzano
| Novara | Draw | Desenzano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 31% | 24% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Novara | Desenzano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.5 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0 |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 27 |
| 2 | Trento | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | Treviso | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | US Pergolettese | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Alcione Milano | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 15 |
| 9 | Lecco | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Desenzano | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | AC Carpi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 12 |
| 14 | Pro Vercelli | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | Novara | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 17 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 10 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 10 |
| 19 | US Folgore Caratese | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 7 |
| 20 | Renate | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Novara | Desenzano |
|---|---|---|
| ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| US Folgore Caratese | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Desenzano (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Novara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/10 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
Desenzano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 21/09 | Treviso Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/09 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Novara vs Desenzano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Novara win (45%). Probabilities: Novara 45%, draw 30%, Desenzano 25%.
How many goals are expected in Novara vs Desenzano?
The model expects 2.15 goals (Novara 1.28 · Desenzano 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Novara vs Desenzano?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.