Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 01/11, 17:30

Prediction: Lumezzane vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Team pages: Lumezzane · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Lumezzane1.22

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1.29

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Lumezzane Draw ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lumezzane 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLWDLL

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Lumezzane 1–4–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (6 last)

Lumezzane0-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo3-3Lumezzane
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-1Lumezzane
Lumezzane1-0ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Lumezzane2-2ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Lumezzane1-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lumezzane 1471 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1544

	Lumezzane	Draw	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (rating 1471 vs 1544).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lumezzane	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +5’	2.63	3.10	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lumezzane 1–4–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	0-1 HT 0-1	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
25/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	3-3 HT 2-1	Lumezzane
08/02/25 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-1 HT 0-0	Lumezzane
30/09/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	1-0 HT 1-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
01/03/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	2-2 HT 0-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
07/11/23 Italy Serie C Cup	Lumezzane	1-1 HT 1-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	18	6	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	17	6	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	19	9	22
4	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	12	8	19
6	A.C. Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	18	11	18
7	US Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	10	9	17
8	Alcione Milano	11	3	6	2	18	17	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	14	11	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Desenzano	11	3	4	4	10	13	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	12	16	12
13	AC Carpi	11	3	3	5	16	21	12
14	Pro Vercelli	11	3	3	5	10	19	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	12	14	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	10	16	10
17	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	8	14	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	11	18	10
19	US Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	11	17	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	9	16	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lumezzane	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
US Pergolettese	1-2 L	2-2 D
AC Carpi	1-3 L	3-0 W
Juventus U23	0-0 D	2-1 W
Albinoleffe	3-2 W	2-1 W
Novara	0-0 D	2-0 W
Renate	2-2 D	2-1 W
Cittadella	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lumezzane

WLDDWLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
17/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-3	5	1	L
13/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
10/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
26/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-2	2	6	L
21/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
17/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
13/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
30/08	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

WLLWWWDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
19/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
10/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
03/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
27/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	3-0	2	6	W
20/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
13/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
06/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
30/08	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lumezzane vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ASD Union Arzignanochiampo win (37%). Probabilities: Lumezzane 34%, draw 29%, ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 37%.

How many goals are expected in Lumezzane vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Lumezzane 1.22 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1.29), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lumezzane vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.