Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 25/10, 12:30

Prediction: Renate vs Albinoleffe

Team pages: Renate · Albinoleffe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Renate1.42

Albinoleffe1.34

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Renate Draw Albinoleffe

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Renate 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLLDDL

Albinoleffe 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWDWLD

Head-to-head

Renate 1–2–3 Albinoleffe (6 last)

Renate1-1Albinoleffe
Albinoleffe2-3Renate
Albinoleffe1-0Renate
Renate0-2Albinoleffe
Albinoleffe0-0Renate
Renate0-2Albinoleffe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Renate 1419 · Albinoleffe 1507

	Renate	Draw	Albinoleffe
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Albinoleffe (rating 1419 vs 1507).
H2H favours Albinoleffe: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Renate	Albinoleffe
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	1.1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +26’	2.38	3.20	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Renate 1–2–3 Albinoleffe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	1-1 HT 1-0	Albinoleffe
06/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	2-3 HT 0-1	Renate
09/02/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	1-0 HT 0-0	Renate
28/09/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	0-2 HT 0-1	Albinoleffe
13/04/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	0-0 HT 0-0	Renate
08/12/23 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	0-2 HT 0-1	Albinoleffe

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	17	4	27
2	Trento	10	5	5	0	15	5	20
3	Union Brescia	10	5	4	1	17	8	19
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	10	7	16
7	Alcione Milano	10	3	6	1	17	15	15
8	US Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	8	8	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	12	9	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	16	15	13
11	Desenzano	10	3	4	3	9	11	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	10	14	10
14	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	2	4	4	7	12	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	10	16	10
16	Pro Vercelli	10	2	3	5	8	18	9
17	AC Carpi	10	2	3	5	14	20	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	10	13	8
19	US Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	9	15	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	9	16	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Renate	Albinoleffe
Juventus U23	1-2 L	5-3 W
Giana Erminio	2-2 D	2-1 W
A.C. Ospitaletto	1-1 D	1-1 D
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-2 L	1-2 L
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	0-0 D	0-0 D
Lumezzane	2-2 D	2-3 L
Novara	1-2 L	2-2 D
Cittadella	0-1 L	2-1 W
Alcione Milano	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 5 L	3 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Albinoleffe (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Renate

LLLDDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	5	9	L
11/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
03/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
27/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
20/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
17/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
13/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
07/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
31/08	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
21/08	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-3	8	6	L

Albinoleffe

WDLDLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
10/10	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
03/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
27/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
20/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	5-3	1	2	W
17/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
13/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
06/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
31/08	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
22/08	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Renate vs Albinoleffe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Renate win (38%). Probabilities: Renate 38%, draw 28%, Albinoleffe 34%.

How many goals are expected in Renate vs Albinoleffe?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Renate 1.42 · Albinoleffe 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Renate vs Albinoleffe?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.