Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 24/10, 17:30

Prediction: Union Brescia vs Cittadella

Team pages: Union Brescia · Cittadella

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Union Brescia1.39

Cittadella1.04

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Union Brescia Draw Cittadella

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Brescia 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Cittadella 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Union Brescia 1–1–0 Cittadella (2 last)

Union Brescia2-1Cittadella
Cittadella1-1Union Brescia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Brescia 1566 · Cittadella 1579

	Union Brescia	Draw	Cittadella
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Brescia	Cittadella
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.7 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +4’	2.05	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Brescia 1–1–0 Cittadella

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Union Brescia	2-1 HT 2-0	Cittadella
01/12/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Cittadella	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Brescia

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	17	4	27
2	Trento	10	5	5	0	15	5	20
3	Union Brescia	10	5	4	1	17	8	19
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	10	7	16
7	Alcione Milano	10	3	6	1	17	15	15
8	US Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	8	8	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	12	9	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	16	15	13
11	Desenzano	10	3	4	3	9	11	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	10	14	10
14	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	2	4	4	7	12	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	10	16	10
16	Pro Vercelli	10	2	3	5	8	18	9
17	AC Carpi	10	2	3	5	14	20	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	10	13	8
19	US Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	9	15	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	9	16	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Brescia	Cittadella
Lecco	2-2 D	3-0 W
US Pergolettese	1-0 W	2-0 W
AC Carpi	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cittadella (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Brescia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
09/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	12	2	D
20/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-0	8	2	W
17/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
13/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/08	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W

Cittadella

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
10/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-2	11	4	L
26/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
13/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
31/08	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Brescia vs Cittadella?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Brescia win (44%). Probabilities: Union Brescia 44%, draw 29%, Cittadella 27%.

How many goals are expected in Union Brescia vs Cittadella?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Union Brescia 1.39 · Cittadella 1.04), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Brescia vs Cittadella?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.