Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 30/10, 20:30

Prediction: Albinoleffe vs US Pergolettese

Team pages: Albinoleffe · US Pergolettese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Albinoleffe1.24

US Pergolettese0.91

1X2

43% 30% 27%

Albinoleffe Draw US Pergolettese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Albinoleffe 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDWLDD

US Pergolettese 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LDWDDDDWWW

Head-to-head

Albinoleffe 4–2–0 US Pergolettese (6 last)

Albinoleffe3-0US Pergolettese
US Pergolettese0-0Albinoleffe
US Pergolettese1-2Albinoleffe
Albinoleffe3-0US Pergolettese
US Pergolettese1-1Albinoleffe
Albinoleffe1-0US Pergolettese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Albinoleffe 1504 · US Pergolettese 1529

	Albinoleffe	Draw	US Pergolettese
Our model	43%	32%	26%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Albinoleffe: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Albinoleffe	US Pergolettese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.1	1.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +4’	2.05	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Albinoleffe 4–2–0 US Pergolettese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	3-0 HT 1-0	US Pergolettese
29/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A	US Pergolettese	0-0 HT 0-0	Albinoleffe
19/01/25 Italy Serie C Group A	US Pergolettese	1-2 HT 1-1	Albinoleffe
13/09/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	3-0 HT 1-0	US Pergolettese
20/04/24 Italy Serie C Group A	US Pergolettese	1-1 HT 0-1	Albinoleffe
16/12/23 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	1-0 HT 1-0	US Pergolettese

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	18	6	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	17	6	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	19	9	22
4	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	12	8	19
6	A.C. Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	18	11	18
7	US Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	10	9	17
8	Alcione Milano	11	3	6	2	18	17	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	14	11	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Desenzano	11	3	4	4	10	13	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	12	16	12
13	AC Carpi	11	3	3	5	16	21	12
14	Pro Vercelli	11	3	3	5	10	19	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	12	14	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	10	16	10
17	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	8	14	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	11	18	10
19	US Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	11	17	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	9	16	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Albinoleffe	US Pergolettese
Novara	2-2 D	1-0 W
Lumezzane	2-3 L	2-1 W
Juventus U23	5-3 W	0-0 D
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-2 L	2-2 D
AC Carpi	0-1 L	2-1 W
A.C. Ospitaletto	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: US Pergolettese (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Albinoleffe

DLDLWDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
18/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
10/10	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
03/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
27/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
20/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	5-3	1	2	W
17/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
13/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
06/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
31/08	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	2	D

US Pergolettese

LDWDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	3-2	4	3	W
10/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
03/10	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	2-2	10	4	D
26/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
20/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
17/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
13/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
30/08	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Albinoleffe vs US Pergolettese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Albinoleffe win (43%). Probabilities: Albinoleffe 43%, draw 30%, US Pergolettese 27%.

How many goals are expected in Albinoleffe vs US Pergolettese?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Albinoleffe 1.24 · US Pergolettese 0.91), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Albinoleffe vs US Pergolettese?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.