Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 31/10, 17:30
Prediction: Giana Erminio vs Alcione Milano
Team pages: Giana Erminio · Alcione Milano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Giana Erminio1.37
Alcione Milano1.4
1X2
Giana Erminio
Draw
Alcione Milano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Giana Erminio
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Alcione Milano
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Giana Erminio
1–3–1
Alcione Milano
(5 last)
- Alcione Milano1-1Giana Erminio
- Giana Erminio1-1Alcione Milano
- Alcione Milano2-2Giana Erminio
- Giana Erminio0-2Alcione Milano
- Giana Erminio2-1Alcione Milano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Giana Erminio 1491 · Alcione Milano 1495
| Giana Erminio | Draw | Alcione Milano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Giana Erminio | Alcione Milano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 2.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Giana Erminio 1–3–1 Alcione Milano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A | Alcione Milano | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Giana Erminio |
| 26/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Giana Erminio | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Alcione Milano |
| 25/04/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Alcione Milano | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Giana Erminio |
| 14/12/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Giana Erminio | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Alcione Milano |
| 02/11/22 Italy Serie D Cup | Giana Erminio | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Alcione Milano |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 27 |
| 2 | Trento | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | Treviso | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | US Pergolettese | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Alcione Milano | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 15 |
| 9 | Lecco | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Desenzano | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | AC Carpi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 12 |
| 14 | Pro Vercelli | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | Novara | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 17 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 10 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 10 |
| 19 | US Folgore Caratese | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 7 |
| 20 | Renate | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Giana Erminio | Alcione Milano |
|---|---|---|
| Desenzano | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Union Brescia | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Treviso | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Pro Vercelli | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| US Folgore Caratese | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Trento | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Lecco | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 2 L | 2 W 5 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Alcione Milano (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Giana Erminio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/10 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 04/10 | Treviso Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 20/09 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 17/09 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Alcione Milano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 18/10 | Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/10 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 20/09 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 17/09 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 07/09 | Treviso Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Giana Erminio vs Alcione Milano?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Alcione Milano win (37%). Probabilities: Giana Erminio 35%, draw 28%, Alcione Milano 37%.
How many goals are expected in Giana Erminio vs Alcione Milano?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Giana Erminio 1.37 · Alcione Milano 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Giana Erminio vs Alcione Milano?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.