Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 29/08, 10:00

Prediction: Southern District vs Kowloon City

Team pages: Southern District · Kowloon City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Southern District1.87

Kowloon City1.36

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Southern District Draw Kowloon City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Southern District 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLWWDW

Kowloon City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWLWDL

Head-to-head

Southern District 3–3 Kowloon City (6 last)

Southern District3-1Kowloon City
Kowloon City2-1Southern District
Southern District2-0Kowloon City
Kowloon City0-2Southern District
Southern District0-1Kowloon City
Kowloon City2-1Southern District

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southern District 1524 · Kowloon City 1477

	Southern District	Draw	Kowloon City
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	49%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southern District (rating 1524 vs 1477).
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southern District	Kowloon City
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.6	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:43 +12’	1.83	3.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southern District 3–0–3 Kowloon City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Hong Kong Premier League	Southern District	3-1 HT 1-0	Kowloon City
12/04/26 Hong Kong Premier League	Kowloon City	2-1 HT 1-1	Southern District
22/11/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Southern District	2-0 HT 2-0	Kowloon City
18/05/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Kowloon City	0-2 HT 0-1	Southern District
25/01/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Southern District	0-1 HT 0-0	Kowloon City
20/10/24 Hong Kong Premier League	Kowloon City	2-1 HT 2-0	Southern District

Standings · Hong Kong Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lee Man FC	1	1	0	3	0	3
2	Shatin	1	1	0	3	1	3
3	North District	1	1	0	2	0	3
4	Kitchee	1	1	0	3	2	3
4	Southern District	1	1	0	3	2	3
6	Eastern District	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Hong Kong FC	1	0	1	2	3	0
7	HK Rangers FC	1	0	1	2	3	0
9	Eastern SC	1	0	1	1	3	0
10	Tai Po	1	0	1	0	2	0
11	Kowloon City	1	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southern District	Kowloon City
Hong Kong FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Eastern District	2-2 D	2-1 W
HK Rangers FC	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Kowloon City (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southern District

WWLDLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
09/05	Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	2-2	15	5	D
03/05	Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League	2-0	4-1	4	5	W
26/04	Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
19/04	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	1-3	8	3	L
12/04	Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
22/03	North District Hong Kong Premier League	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
15/03	Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	10	L
28/02	Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/02	Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	9	W

Kowloon City

LWLDWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	0-3	0	4	L
16/05	Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	1-1	12	4	D
03/05	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
26/04	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	1-3	1	7	L
19/04	Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
12/04	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
21/03	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	8	D
14/03	Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
01/03	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	2-1	5-1	6	7	W
01/02	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	1-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southern District vs Kowloon City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southern District win (49%). Probabilities: Southern District 49%, draw 24%, Kowloon City 27%.

How many goals are expected in Southern District vs Kowloon City?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Southern District 1.87 · Kowloon City 1.36), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Southern District vs Kowloon City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.