Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 05/09, 12:30

Prediction: Eastern SC vs Kowloon City

Team pages: Eastern SC · Kowloon City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Eastern SC1.75

Kowloon City1.6

1X2

41% 25% 34%

Eastern SC Draw Kowloon City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Eastern SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLDLL

Kowloon City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Eastern SC 4–1–1 Kowloon City (6 last)

Kowloon City2-1Eastern SC
Eastern SC2-1Kowloon City
Eastern SC3-1Kowloon City
Eastern SC3-1Kowloon City
Kowloon City1-5Eastern SC
Kowloon City1-1Eastern SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eastern SC 1468 · Kowloon City 1482

	Eastern SC	Draw	Kowloon City
Our model	41%	25%	35%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Eastern SC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eastern SC	Kowloon City
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.29
X	4.00 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	3.75 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.84 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +28’	1.67	4.00	3.75
19:20 +16’	1.83▲	3.80▼	3.25▼
08:52 +7’	2.20▲	3.60▼	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:46	1.74	3.78	3.95
19:35 +1’	1.82▲	3.68▼	3.70▼
08:59	2.29▲	3.29▼	2.84▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern SC 4–1–1 Kowloon City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/12/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Kowloon City	2-1 HT 0-1	Eastern SC
13/09/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Eastern SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Kowloon City
05/05/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Eastern SC	3-1 HT 1-1	Kowloon City
02/03/25 Hong Kong Cup	Eastern SC	3-1 HT 2-0	Kowloon City
23/02/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Kowloon City	1-5 HT 1-2	Eastern SC
22/09/24 Hong Kong Premier League	Kowloon City	1-1 HT 1-0	Eastern SC

Standings · Hong Kong Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lee Man FC	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Southern District	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
3	North District	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
4	Kitchee	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Eastern District	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Tai Po	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
7	Shatin	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
8	Hong Kong FC	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
9	HK Rangers FC	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
10	Kowloon City	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
11	Eastern SC	2	0	0	2	2	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eastern SC	Kowloon City
Kitchee	4-4 D	0-4 L
Lee Man FC	1-0 W	0-3 L
Hong Kong FC	5-0 W	1-1 D
HK Rangers FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Eastern District	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Eastern SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eastern SC

WLDWWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
21/08	Shatin Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
17/05	Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League	3-2	4-4	3	7	D
09/05	Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	2-4	3	3	L
01/05	North District Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	3-1	10	7	W
26/04	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
11/04	Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League	3-0	5-0	3	4	W
04/04	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
21/03	Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
14/03	Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W

Kowloon City

WLDWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	10	L
23/08	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	0-3	0	4	L
16/05	Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	1-1	12	4	D
03/05	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
26/04	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	1-3	1	7	L
19/04	Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
12/04	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
21/03	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	8	D
14/03	Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
01/03	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	2-1	5-1	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eastern SC vs Kowloon City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Eastern SC win (41%). Probabilities: Eastern SC 41%, draw 25%, Kowloon City 34%.

How many goals are expected in Eastern SC vs Kowloon City?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Eastern SC 1.75 · Kowloon City 1.6), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Eastern SC vs Kowloon City?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.