Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 05/09, 10:00
Prediction: Tai Po vs HK Rangers FC
Team pages: Tai Po · HK Rangers FC
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.86Total
Tai Po2.46
HK Rangers FC1.4
1X2
Tai Po
Draw
HK Rangers FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Tai Po
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
HK Rangers FC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tai Po
5–1–0
HK Rangers FC
(6 last)
- Tai Po2-0HK Rangers FC
- HK Rangers FC0-2Tai Po
- Tai Po1-1HK Rangers FC
- Tai Po6-1HK Rangers FC
- HK Rangers FC2-3Tai Po
- HK Rangers FC2-5Tai Po
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tai Po 1598 · HK Rangers FC 1397
| Tai Po | Draw | HK Rangers FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tai Po (rating 1598 vs 1397).
- H2H favours Tai Po: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tai Po | HK Rangers FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 3.2 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.6 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tai Po 5–1–0 HK Rangers FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Hong Kong Cup | Tai Po | 2-0 HT 0-0 | HK Rangers FC |
| 22/03/26 Hong Kong Premier League | HK Rangers FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Tai Po |
| 18/02/26 Hong Kong Senior Shield | Tai Po | 1-1 HT 1-0 | HK Rangers FC |
| 01/11/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Tai Po | 6-1 HT 0-1 | HK Rangers FC |
| 10/05/25 Hong Kong Premier League | HK Rangers FC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Tai Po |
| 21/12/24 Hong Kong Premier League | HK Rangers FC | 2-5 HT 1-2 | Tai Po |
Standings · Hong Kong Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee Man FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Southern District | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | North District | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Kitchee | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Eastern District | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Tai Po | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Shatin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Hong Kong FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | HK Rangers FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 | Kowloon City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 | Eastern SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tai Po | HK Rangers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern SC | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| North District | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Kitchee | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Eastern District | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Southern District | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Tai Po (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tai Po
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 15/03 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 28/02 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
HK Rangers FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 14/03 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tai Po vs HK Rangers FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tai Po win (60%). Probabilities: Tai Po 60%, draw 20%, HK Rangers FC 20%.
How many goals are expected in Tai Po vs HK Rangers FC?
The model expects 3.86 goals (Tai Po 2.46 · HK Rangers FC 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tai Po vs HK Rangers FC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.