Football · New Zealand Central League · 01/08, 04:30

Prediction: Island Bay United vs FC Western

Team pages: Island Bay United · FC Western

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.28Total

Island Bay United2.79

FC Western1.49

1X2

64% 18% 18%

Island Bay United Draw FC Western

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Island Bay United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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FC Western 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Island Bay United 1–0 FC Western (1 last)

FC Western0-5Island Bay United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Island Bay United 1444 · FC Western 1406

	Island Bay United	Draw	FC Western
Our model	64%	18%	18%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Island Bay United	FC Western
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	1 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.8	2 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +6’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Island Bay United 1–0–0 FC Western

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 New Zealand Central League	FC Western	0-5 HT 0-5	Island Bay United

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	14	11	2	1	37	11	35
2	Miramar Rangers	14	10	3	1	31	11	33
3	Wellington Olympic	14	10	2	2	44	14	32
4	Western Suburbs	14	8	4	2	25	11	28
5	Upper Hutt City	14	6	0	8	24	28	18
6	Waterside Karori	14	4	2	8	14	35	14
7	Petone FC	14	3	3	8	14	23	12
8	Island Bay United	14	4	0	10	20	33	12
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	14	2	4	8	13	18	10
10	FC Western	14	1	2	11	10	48	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Island Bay United	FC Western
Wellington Olympic	1-2 L	0-9 L
Western Suburbs	0-2 L	1-1 D
Miramar Rangers	1-3 L	1-3 L
Napier City Rovers	0-1 L	1-6 L
Waterside Karori	0-4 L	2-3 L
Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-2 D	1-1 D
Petone FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Island Bay United (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Island Bay United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
11/07	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
04/07	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
27/06	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	2-1	2-4	12	4	L
20/06	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
06/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-3	0-4	2	4	L
03/06	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Cup	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
30/05	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
24/05	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
16/05	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	1-2	1-3	2	3	L

FC Western

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-1	2-3	1	2	L
11/07	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-5	0-9	1	0	L
04/07	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
28/06	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
21/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
07/06	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	2-0	2-1	7	0	W
24/05	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-6	–	–	L
17/05	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	1-2	1-4	7	4	L
10/05	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
03/05	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	0-5	0-5	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Island Bay United vs FC Western?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Island Bay United win (64%). Probabilities: Island Bay United 64%, draw 18%, FC Western 18%.

How many goals are expected in Island Bay United vs FC Western?

The model expects 4.28 goals (Island Bay United 2.79 · FC Western 1.49), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Island Bay United vs FC Western?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.