Football · New Zealand Central League · 02/08, 03:00

Prediction: Napier City Rovers vs Petone FC

Team pages: Napier City Rovers · Petone FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Napier City Rovers2.94

Petone FC0.94

1X2

79% 13% 9%

Napier City Rovers Draw Petone FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Napier City Rovers 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Petone FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Napier City Rovers 4–1–1 Petone FC (6 last)

Petone FC0-4Napier City Rovers
Petone FC0-1Napier City Rovers
Napier City Rovers5-1Petone FC
Petone FC3-3Napier City Rovers
Petone FC1-0Napier City Rovers
Napier City Rovers2-1Petone FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Napier City Rovers 1624 · Petone FC 1426

	Napier City Rovers	Draw	Petone FC
Our model	77%	14%	8%
Market	80%	11%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.89 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Napier City Rovers (rating 1624 vs 1426).
H2H favours Napier City Rovers: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Napier City Rovers	Petone FC
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1	0.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/33/11%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 5.9	1.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.13

X8.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.90

2 (+2.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +5’	1.13	8.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Napier City Rovers 4–1–1 Petone FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 New Zealand Cup	Petone FC	0-4 HT 0-1	Napier City Rovers
02/05/26 New Zealand Central League	Petone FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Napier City Rovers
24/08/25 New Zealand Central League	Napier City Rovers	5-1 HT 4-0	Petone FC
17/05/25 New Zealand Central League	Petone FC	3-3 HT 1-1	Napier City Rovers
10/08/24 New Zealand Central League	Petone FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Napier City Rovers
12/05/24 New Zealand Central League	Napier City Rovers	2-1 HT 1-0	Petone FC

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	14	11	2	1	37	11	35
2	Miramar Rangers	14	10	3	1	31	11	33
3	Wellington Olympic	14	10	2	2	44	14	32
4	Western Suburbs	14	8	4	2	25	11	28
5	Upper Hutt City	14	6	0	8	24	28	18
6	Waterside Karori	14	4	2	8	14	35	14
7	Petone FC	14	3	3	8	14	23	12
8	Island Bay United	14	4	0	10	20	33	12
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	14	2	4	8	13	18	10
10	FC Western	14	1	2	11	10	48	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Napier City Rovers	Petone FC
Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-1 W	1-1 D
Upper Hutt City	5-1 W	0-2 L
Wellington Olympic	3-2 W	1-5 L
Island Bay United	1-0 W	0-2 L
Western Suburbs	3-3 D	0-1 L
Waterside Karori	0-0 D	0-1 L
FC Western	6-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Napier City Rovers (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Napier City Rovers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Hibiscus Coast New Zealand Cup	4-2	5-2	–	–	W
18/07	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
12/07	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	2-0	5-1	7	0	W
04/07	Petone FC New Zealand Cup	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
28/06	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	1-1	3-2	0	0	W
20/06	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
06/06	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
01/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Cup	–	0-0	–	–	D
30/05	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	1-0	3-0	8	0	W
24/05	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-1	6-1	–	–	W

Petone FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
11/07	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
04/07	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Cup	0-1	0-4	8	2	L
27/06	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
21/06	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/06	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
24/05	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	0-2	0-2	8	2	L
16/05	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-3	1-5	6	1	L
09/05	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
02/05	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Napier City Rovers vs Petone FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Napier City Rovers win (79%). Probabilities: Napier City Rovers 79%, draw 13%, Petone FC 9%.

How many goals are expected in Napier City Rovers vs Petone FC?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Napier City Rovers 2.94 · Petone FC 0.94), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Napier City Rovers vs Petone FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.