Football · New Zealand Central League · 08/08, 04:30

Prediction: Miramar Rangers vs FC Western

Team pages: Miramar Rangers · FC Western

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.26Total

Miramar Rangers3.13

FC Western1.13

1X2

84% 10% 6%

Miramar Rangers Draw FC Western

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Miramar Rangers 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDLD

FC Western 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDDLLD

Head-to-head

Miramar Rangers 1–0 FC Western (1 last)

FC Western1-3Miramar Rangers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Miramar Rangers 1569 · FC Western 1423

	Miramar Rangers	Draw	FC Western
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	90%	6%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 4.26 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miramar Rangers (rating 1569 vs 1423).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miramar Rangers	FC Western
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.8 / 8.5	1.9 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.03

X15.00

226.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.83

Under 4.51.85

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
X	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
2	26.00 → 26.00	Bet365 26.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:12 +5’	1.03	15.00	26.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Miramar Rangers 1–0–0 FC Western

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 New Zealand Central League	FC Western	1-3 HT 0-2	Miramar Rangers

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	15	12	2	1	41	11	38
2	Wellington Olympic	15	11	2	2	48	15	35
3	Miramar Rangers	15	10	4	1	31	11	34
4	Western Suburbs	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
5	Upper Hutt City	15	6	0	9	25	32	18
6	Waterside Karori	15	4	3	8	14	35	15
7	Island Bay United	15	4	1	10	20	33	13
8	Petone FC	15	3	3	9	14	27	12
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	15	2	5	8	15	20	11
10	FC Western	15	1	3	11	10	48	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Miramar Rangers	FC Western
Waterside Karori	0-0 D	2-3 L
Petone FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Wellington Phoenix Reserves	1-0 W	1-1 D
Island Bay United	3-1 W	0-0 D
Upper Hutt City	3-2 W	1-4 L
Western Suburbs	2-0 W	1-1 D
Wellington Olympic	1-1 D	0-9 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Miramar Rangers (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Miramar Rangers

WDWWWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	15	3	D
26/07	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup	0-1	1-2	8	1	L
18/07	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
11/07	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-0	15	3	W
04/07	Island Bay United New Zealand Cup	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
27/06	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	1-2	4-2	5	4	W
20/06	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	1-1	3-2	10	1	W
13/06	Western Suburbs New Zealand Cup	0-0	2-0	11	0	W
06/06	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
30/05	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Cup	0-0	2-1	2	0	W

FC Western

LLLWLDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
19/07	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-1	2-3	1	2	L
11/07	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-5	0-9	1	0	L
04/07	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
28/06	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
21/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
07/06	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	2-0	2-1	7	0	W
24/05	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-6	–	–	L
17/05	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	1-2	1-4	7	4	L
10/05	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miramar Rangers vs FC Western?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Miramar Rangers win (84%). Probabilities: Miramar Rangers 84%, draw 10%, FC Western 6%.

How many goals are expected in Miramar Rangers vs FC Western?

The model expects 4.26 goals (Miramar Rangers 3.13 · FC Western 1.13), with a 54% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Miramar Rangers vs FC Western?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.