Football · New Zealand Central League · 08/08, 05:00

Prediction: Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Wellington Olympic

Team pages: Wellington Phoenix Reserves · Wellington Olympic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Wellington Phoenix Reserves0.99

Wellington Olympic2.67

1X2

11% 16% 73%

Wellington Phoenix Reserves Draw Wellington Olympic

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Wellington Olympic 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1–5 Wellington Olympic (6 last)

Wellington Olympic3-1Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Wellington Phoenix Reserves3-5Wellington Olympic
Wellington Phoenix Reserves0-3Wellington Olympic
Wellington Olympic3-0Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Wellington Phoenix Reserves3-1Wellington Olympic
Wellington Phoenix Reserves3-5Wellington Olympic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1445 · Wellington Olympic 1584

	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Draw	Wellington Olympic
Our model	11%	17%	72%
Market	12%	15%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wellington Olympic (rating 1445 vs 1584).
H2H favours Wellington Olympic: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Wellington Olympic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	3.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.8	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

17.50

X6.00

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.85

2 (-1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.36 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:58 +18’	7.50	6.00	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +13’	4.29	5.30	1.42
23:13 +4’	4.68▲	5.57▲	1.36▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1–0–5 Wellington Olympic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Olympic	3-1 HT 2-1	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
27/09/25 New Zealand Football Championship	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	3-5 HT 0-3	Wellington Olympic
02/08/25 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	0-3 HT 0-2	Wellington Olympic
03/05/25 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Olympic	3-0 HT 3-0	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
17/11/24 New Zealand Football Championship	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	3-1 HT 1-1	Wellington Olympic
19/06/24 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	3-5 HT 3-2	Wellington Olympic

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	15	12	2	1	41	11	38
2	Wellington Olympic	15	11	2	2	48	15	35
3	Miramar Rangers	15	10	4	1	31	11	34
4	Western Suburbs	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
5	Upper Hutt City	15	6	0	9	25	32	18
6	Waterside Karori	15	4	3	8	14	35	15
7	Island Bay United	15	4	1	10	20	33	13
8	Petone FC	15	3	3	9	14	27	12
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	15	2	5	8	15	20	11
10	FC Western	15	1	3	11	10	48	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Wellington Olympic
Western Suburbs	2-2 D	2-1 W
Napier City Rovers	1-2 L	2-3 L
Miramar Rangers	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Western	1-1 D	9-0 W
Petone FC	1-1 D	5-1 W
Waterside Karori	0-0 D	3-0 W
Island Bay United	2-2 D	2-1 W
Upper Hutt City	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 5 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wellington Olympic (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wellington Phoenix Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-2	5	0	D
18/07	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
11/07	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
04/07	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
27/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
20/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
07/06	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-2	10	0	L
03/06	Island Bay United New Zealand Cup	2-2	2-2	6	2	D
23/05	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
16/05	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	2-1	3-1	8	3	W

Wellington Olympic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	1-1	4-1	11	2	W
18/07	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
11/07	FC Western New Zealand Central League	5-0	9-0	9	0	W
28/06	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-1	2-3	0	0	L
20/06	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
06/06	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/05	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup	0-0	1-2	6	0	L
23/05	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
16/05	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	3-0	5-1	2	1	W
09/05	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	2-1	3-1	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Wellington Olympic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wellington Olympic win (73%). Probabilities: Wellington Phoenix Reserves 11%, draw 16%, Wellington Olympic 73%.

How many goals are expected in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Wellington Olympic?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Wellington Phoenix Reserves 0.99 · Wellington Olympic 2.67), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Wellington Olympic?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.