Football · New Zealand Central League · 08/08, 05:45

Prediction: Island Bay United vs Upper Hutt City

Team pages: Island Bay United · Upper Hutt City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Island Bay United1.9

Upper Hutt City1.8

1X2

41% 23% 36%

Island Bay United Draw Upper Hutt City

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Island Bay United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLLLLD

Upper Hutt City 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Island Bay United 2–1 Upper Hutt City (3 last)

Upper Hutt City1-4Island Bay United
Island Bay United1-2Upper Hutt City
Upper Hutt City0-1Island Bay United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Island Bay United 1428 · Upper Hutt City 1470

	Island Bay United	Draw	Upper Hutt City
Our model	40%	23%	36%
Market	41%	23%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Upper Hutt City (rating 1428 vs 1470).
H2H favours Island Bay United: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Island Bay United	Upper Hutt City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.90

22.45

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.86

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.94 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:01 +16’	2.20	3.90	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +14’	1.93	3.71	2.96
23:13 +4’	1.93▲	3.71	2.94▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Island Bay United 2–0–1 Upper Hutt City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 New Zealand Central League	Upper Hutt City	1-4 HT 1-3	Island Bay United
28/06/25 New Zealand Central League	Island Bay United	1-2 HT 1-1	Upper Hutt City
12/04/25 New Zealand Central League	Upper Hutt City	0-1 HT 0-0	Island Bay United

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	15	12	2	1	41	11	38
2	Wellington Olympic	15	11	2	2	48	15	35
3	Miramar Rangers	15	10	4	1	31	11	34
4	Western Suburbs	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
5	Upper Hutt City	15	6	0	9	25	32	18
6	Waterside Karori	15	4	3	8	14	35	15
7	Island Bay United	15	4	1	10	20	33	13
8	Petone FC	15	3	3	9	14	27	12
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	15	2	5	8	15	20	11
10	FC Western	15	1	3	11	10	48	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Island Bay United	Upper Hutt City
FC Western	0-0 D	4-1 W
Wellington Olympic	1-2 L	1-4 L
Western Suburbs	0-2 L	1-2 L
Miramar Rangers	1-3 L	2-3 L
Napier City Rovers	0-1 L	1-5 L
Waterside Karori	0-4 L	6-0 W
Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-2 D	1-0 W
Petone FC	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Upper Hutt City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Island Bay United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	18	0	D
18/07	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
11/07	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
04/07	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
27/06	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	2-1	2-4	12	4	L
20/06	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
06/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-3	0-4	2	4	L
03/06	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Cup	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
30/05	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
24/05	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	2-0	2-0	2	2	W

Upper Hutt City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	1-1	1-4	6	2	L
18/07	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
12/07	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-5	8	0	L
27/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	5-0	6-0	7	1	W
20/06	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
06/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/05	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/05	FC Western New Zealand Central League	2-1	4-1	9	4	W
09/05	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	1-3	1-4	9	4	L
02/05	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-3	1-6	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Island Bay United vs Upper Hutt City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Island Bay United win (41%). Probabilities: Island Bay United 41%, draw 23%, Upper Hutt City 36%.

How many goals are expected in Island Bay United vs Upper Hutt City?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Island Bay United 1.9 · Upper Hutt City 1.8), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Island Bay United vs Upper Hutt City?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.