Football · South Korea Cup · 19/08, 12:00

Prediction: Chungnam Asan FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen

Team pages: Chungnam Asan FC · Daejeon Hana Citizen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Chungnam Asan FC1.1

Daejeon Hana Citizen1.77

1X2

23% 25% 52%

Chungnam Asan FC Draw Daejeon Hana Citizen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chungnam Asan FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLWWDL

Daejeon Hana Citizen 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDDDLWWL

Head-to-head

Chungnam Asan FC 1–1–4 Daejeon Hana Citizen (6 last)

Daejeon Hana Citizen1-1Chungnam Asan FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen2-1Chungnam Asan FC
Chungnam Asan FC1-0Daejeon Hana Citizen
Chungnam Asan FC0-3Daejeon Hana Citizen
Chungnam Asan FC3-4Daejeon Hana Citizen
Daejeon Hana Citizen1-0Chungnam Asan FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chungnam Asan FC 1520 · Daejeon Hana Citizen 1473

	Chungnam Asan FC	Draw	Daejeon Hana Citizen
Our model	22%	26%	52%
Market	23%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chungnam Asan FC (rating 1520 vs 1473).
H2H favours Daejeon Hana Citizen: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chungnam Asan FC	Daejeon Hana Citizen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.70

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.27 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +11’	3.90	3.70	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +1’	4.27	3.60	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chungnam Asan FC 1–1–4 Daejeon Hana Citizen

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/22 South Korea K League 2	Daejeon Hana Citizen	1-1 HT 1-1	Chungnam Asan FC
14/08/22 South Korea K League 2	Daejeon Hana Citizen	2-1 HT 2-1	Chungnam Asan FC
13/06/22 South Korea K League 2	Chungnam Asan FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Daejeon Hana Citizen
18/04/22 South Korea K League 2	Chungnam Asan FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Daejeon Hana Citizen
16/10/21 South Korea K League 2	Chungnam Asan FC	3-4 HT 2-1	Daejeon Hana Citizen
01/08/21 South Korea K League 2	Daejeon Hana Citizen	1-0 HT 1-0	Chungnam Asan FC

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chungnam Asan FC

DWDWLLWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Daegu FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
07/08	Ansan Greeners FC South Korea K League 2	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
01/08	Seongnam FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/07	Siheung City AC South Korea Cup	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
25/07	Hwaseong FC South Korea K League 2	0-2	2-3	10	4	L
18/07	Jeonnam Dragons South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-1	2	11	L
15/07	Jeonnam Dragons South Korea Cup	2-1	4-3	4	9	W
12/07	Gyeongnam FC South Korea K League 2	1-1	1-1	0	5	D
05/07	Gimpo FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
05/06	Busan I Park South Korea K League 2	2-2	2-2	4	4	D

Daejeon Hana Citizen

LLDDDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	1-0	2-4	8	6	L
08/08	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
25/07	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
21/07	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/07	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	2-1	2-2	6	1	D
12/07	Jeju United South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
04/07	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
16/05	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/05	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-2	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chungnam Asan FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Daejeon Hana Citizen win (52%). Probabilities: Chungnam Asan FC 23%, draw 25%, Daejeon Hana Citizen 52%.

How many goals are expected in Chungnam Asan FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Chungnam Asan FC 1.1 · Daejeon Hana Citizen 1.77), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chungnam Asan FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.