Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 01/11, 12:30

Prediction: US Folgore Caratese vs Union Brescia

Team pages: US Folgore Caratese · Union Brescia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

US Folgore Caratese0.88

Union Brescia1.86

1X2

16% 25% 59%

US Folgore Caratese Draw Union Brescia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

US Folgore Caratese 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Union Brescia 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Folgore Caratese 1453 · Union Brescia 1538

	US Folgore Caratese	Draw	Union Brescia
Our model	16%	24%	59%
Market	16%	25%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Brescia (rating 1453 vs 1538).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Folgore Caratese	Union Brescia
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.60

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +8’	5.50	3.60	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	18	6	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	17	6	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	19	9	22
4	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	12	8	19
6	A.C. Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	18	11	18
7	US Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	10	9	17
8	Alcione Milano	11	3	6	2	18	17	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	14	11	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Desenzano	11	3	4	4	10	13	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	12	16	12
13	AC Carpi	11	3	3	5	16	21	12
14	Pro Vercelli	11	3	3	5	10	19	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	12	14	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	10	16	10
17	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	8	14	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	11	18	10
19	US Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	11	17	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	9	16	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Folgore Caratese	Union Brescia
Lecco	2-2 D	2-2 D
Treviso	0-2 L	2-2 D
Trento	0-1 L	0-0 D
Desenzano	1-2 L	1-0 W
Giana Erminio	1-1 D	1-2 L
US Pergolettese	0-0 D	1-0 W
Alcione Milano	2-3 L	4-0 W
Pro Vercelli	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 5 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Union Brescia (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

US Folgore Caratese

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
17/10	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
11/10	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
03/10	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
26/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
20/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
17/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
13/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
07/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	4	4	D

Union Brescia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
19/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
09/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	12	2	D
20/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-0	8	2	W
17/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
13/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Folgore Caratese vs Union Brescia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Brescia win (59%). Probabilities: US Folgore Caratese 16%, draw 25%, Union Brescia 59%.

How many goals are expected in US Folgore Caratese vs Union Brescia?

The model expects 2.74 goals (US Folgore Caratese 0.88 · Union Brescia 1.86), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in US Folgore Caratese vs Union Brescia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.