Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 21/08, 21:00
Prediction: Bari vs Cavese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.04Total
Bari1.59
Cavese0.45
1X2
Bari
Draw
Cavese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Bari
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Cavese
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bari
2–2–0
Cavese
(4 last)
- Bari1-1Cavese
- Cavese2-3Bari
- Cavese1-1Bari
- Bari4-0Cavese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bari 1517 · Cavese 1486
| Bari | Draw | Cavese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 26% | 9% |
| Market | 67% | 21% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Bari: 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bari | Cavese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.2 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bari 2–2–0 Cavese
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/21 Italy Serie C Group C | Bari | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cavese |
| 07/10/20 Italy Serie C Group C | Cavese | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Bari |
| 23/02/20 Italy Serie C Group C | Cavese | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Bari |
| 06/10/19 Italy Serie C Group C | Bari | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Cavese |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Savoia 1908 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sorrento Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Audace Cerignola | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AZ Picerno ASD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Foggia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Casertana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Catania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cavese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cosenza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Crotone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Giugliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Inter Milan U23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Potenza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Scafatese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barletta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monopoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Casarano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Team Altamura | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Salernitana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bari
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Casarano Italy Serie C Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | FBC Gravina Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Lanciano Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Sudtirol Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Sudtirol Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 08/05 | Catanzaro Italy Serie B |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Virtus Entella Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | Avellino Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Venezia Italy Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Monza Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Cavese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 06/08 | Juve Stabia Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 30/07 | Sarnese Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Siracusa Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/04 | Benevento Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 08/04 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 14/03 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bari vs Cavese?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bari win (66%). Probabilities: Bari 66%, draw 23%, Cavese 11%.
How many goals are expected in Bari vs Cavese?
The model expects 2.04 goals (Bari 1.59 · Cavese 0.45), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cavese?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.