Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 04/08, 00:30
Prediction: Caracas vs Estudiantes Merida
Team pages: Caracas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Caracas1.42
Estudiantes Merida0.98
1X2
Caracas
Draw
Estudiantes Merida
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Caracas
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Estudiantes Merida
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caracas
1–3–2
Estudiantes Merida
(6 last)
- Estudiantes Merida2-2Caracas
- Estudiantes Merida1-0Caracas
- Caracas0-0Estudiantes Merida
- Caracas2-3Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida1-1Caracas
- Estudiantes Merida0-2Caracas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caracas 1489 · Estudiantes Merida 1473
| Caracas | Draw | Estudiantes Merida | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Estudiantes Merida: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caracas | Estudiantes Merida | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.1 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 5.6 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caracas 1–3–2 Estudiantes Merida
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Caracas |
| 11/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Caracas |
| 01/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 16/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 24/02/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Caracas |
| 05/08/23 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Caracas |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trujillanos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Portuguesa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Caracas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Deportivo Tachira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Estudiantes Merida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Metropolitanos FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Zamora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Monagas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Carabobo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | UCV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caracas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/06 | Aragua Venezuela Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/04 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 20/04 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/04 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
Estudiantes Merida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/04 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 05/04 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caracas vs Estudiantes Merida?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caracas win (46%). Probabilities: Caracas 46%, draw 29%, Estudiantes Merida 25%.
How many goals are expected in Caracas vs Estudiantes Merida?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Caracas 1.42 · Estudiantes Merida 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Caracas vs Estudiantes Merida?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.