Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 04/09, 12:00
Prediction: Salgueiros vs AD Machico
Team pages: Salgueiros · AD Machico
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Salgueiros1.38
AD Machico0.67
1X2
Salgueiros
Draw
AD Machico
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Salgueiros
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
AD Machico
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Salgueiros
3–1–0
AD Machico
(4 last)
- Salgueiros2-0AD Machico
- AD Machico1-1Salgueiros
- Salgueiros2-0AD Machico
- AD Machico0-2Salgueiros
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Salgueiros 1494 · AD Machico 1545
| Salgueiros | Draw | AD Machico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 30% | 17% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Machico (rating 1494 vs 1545).
- H2H favours Salgueiros: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Salgueiros | AD Machico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/33/56% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.4 | 1.3 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.5 | 5.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Salgueiros 3–1–0 AD Machico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Salgueiros | 2-0 HT 1-0 | AD Machico |
| 10/11/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | AD Machico | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Salgueiros |
| 05/03/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Salgueiros | 2-0 HT 0-0 | AD Machico |
| 20/11/22 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | AD Machico | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Salgueiros |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AD Ovarense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | AD Machico | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | AD Camacha | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Florgrade FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Cinfaes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Alpendorada | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | AD Castro Daire | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | AD Sanjoanense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | Salgueiros | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 10 | Estrela da Calheta FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Uniao de Lamas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Beira Mar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Guarda Desportiva | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | UD Sousense | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Salgueiros
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/03 | Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 13 | L |
| 08/03 | SC Vila Real Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/03 | Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 22/02 | Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
AD Machico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Estrela da Calheta FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 08/04 | Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 22/03 | AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 11 | W |
| 08/03 | Brito SC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 01/03 | Sao Martinho Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/02 | SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Salgueiros vs AD Machico?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Salgueiros win (54%). Probabilities: Salgueiros 54%, draw 28%, AD Machico 18%.
How many goals are expected in Salgueiros vs AD Machico?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Salgueiros 1.38 · AD Machico 0.67), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Salgueiros vs AD Machico?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.