Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 13/09, 16:00
Prediction: UD da Serra vs Mortagua FC
Team pages: UD da Serra
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
UD da Serra1.29
Mortagua FC0.97
1X2
UD da Serra
Draw
Mortagua FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
UD da Serra
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Mortagua FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UD da Serra
1–2–1
Mortagua FC
(4 last)
- Mortagua FC1-0UD da Serra
- UD da Serra0-0Mortagua FC
- Mortagua FC3-3UD da Serra
- UD da Serra1-0Mortagua FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UD da Serra 1559 · Mortagua FC 1519
| UD da Serra | Draw | Mortagua FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UD da Serra (rating 1559 vs 1519).
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UD da Serra | Mortagua FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/56/11% | 38/25/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.9 | 1.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UD da Serra 1–2–1 Mortagua FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Mortagua FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | UD da Serra |
| 17/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | UD da Serra | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mortagua FC |
| 05/02/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Mortagua FC | 3-3 HT 2-0 | UD da Serra |
| 23/10/22 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | UD da Serra | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mortagua FC |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortagua FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Fatima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | O Elvas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Naval 1893 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Oliveira Hospital | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica e Castelo Branco | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 | CF Os Marialvas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 10 | Fazendense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Sertanense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Alverca B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | GD Os Nazarenos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | AT Malveira | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UD da Serra | Mortagua FC |
|---|---|---|
| Naval 1893 | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| CF Os Marialvas | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| AC Marinhense | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Juventude Desportiva Lajense | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: UD da Serra (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UD da Serra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 29/03 | CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/03 | AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | Lusitania Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/03 | Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
Mortagua FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 04/04 | CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 29/03 | AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 22/03 | Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 15/03 | Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 08/03 | Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UD da Serra vs Mortagua FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UD da Serra win (43%). Probabilities: UD da Serra 43%, draw 29%, Mortagua FC 27%.
How many goals are expected in UD da Serra vs Mortagua FC?
The model expects 2.27 goals (UD da Serra 1.29 · Mortagua FC 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UD da Serra vs Mortagua FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.