Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Tirsense vs Brito SC

Team pages: FC Tirsense · Brito SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

FC Tirsense1.42

Brito SC0.8

1X2

51% 28% 21%

FC Tirsense Draw Brito SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tirsense 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDDWWL

Brito SC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWLLW

Head-to-head

FC Tirsense 2–1–3 Brito SC (6 last)

Brito SC1-1FC Tirsense
FC Tirsense1-2Brito SC
Brito SC1-0FC Tirsense
FC Tirsense1-0Brito SC
FC Tirsense3-1Brito SC
Brito SC2-0FC Tirsense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tirsense 1532 · Brito SC 1527

	FC Tirsense	Draw	Brito SC
Our model	50%	30%	20%
Market	52%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Brito SC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tirsense	Brito SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.3	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	6.1 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.30

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:01 +5’	1.73	3.30	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tirsense 2–1–3 Brito SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Brito SC	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Tirsense
14/09/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	FC Tirsense	1-2 HT 1-2	Brito SC
02/03/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Brito SC	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Tirsense
24/11/24 Portugal Cup	FC Tirsense	1-0 HT 1-0	Brito SC
03/11/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	FC Tirsense	3-1 HT 2-0	Brito SC
25/02/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Brito SC	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Tirsense

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Tirsense	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Montalegre	3	1	2	0	4	2	5
3	Braga B	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
4	Limianos	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Vila Mea	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	Braganca	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	CD Celoricense	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	AD Ponte da Barca	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	SC Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Chaves B	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
11	Maia Lidador	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
12	Rebordosa	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
13	Brito SC	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
14	Futebol Clube de Vinhais	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tirsense	Brito SC
CD Celoricense	1-2 L	0-1 L
SC Mirandela	1-0 W	2-0 W
CD Ribeira Brava	2-0 W	3-2 W
Vilaverdense	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brito SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tirsense

WDWWWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Futebol Clube de Vinhais Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
16/08	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
18/04	Chaves B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
12/04	Limianos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
04/04	Desportivo Moncao Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
22/03	SC Mirandela Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/03	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
08/03	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
01/03	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Brito SC

LWWWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	SC Maria da Fonte Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-1	3	13	W
23/08	Montalegre Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-3	3	10	L
18/04	SC Mirandela Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
12/04	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
04/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
29/03	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	10	8	W
22/03	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
15/03	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	4-2	2	7	W
08/03	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tirsense vs Brito SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Tirsense win (51%). Probabilities: FC Tirsense 51%, draw 28%, Brito SC 21%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tirsense vs Brito SC?

The model expects 2.23 goals (FC Tirsense 1.42 · Brito SC 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tirsense vs Brito SC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.