Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: Salgueiros vs Cinfaes

Team pages: Salgueiros · Cinfaes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Salgueiros1.03

Cinfaes0.85

1X2

39% 32% 29%

Salgueiros Draw Cinfaes

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Salgueiros 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLDDDD

Cinfaes 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Salgueiros 3–2–1 Cinfaes (6 last)

Cinfaes1-0Salgueiros
Salgueiros0-0Cinfaes
Cinfaes2-3Salgueiros
Salgueiros2-1Cinfaes
Salgueiros3-0Cinfaes
Cinfaes1-1Salgueiros

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Salgueiros 1495 · Cinfaes 1579

	Salgueiros	Draw	Cinfaes
Our model	38%	35%	28%
Market	40%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cinfaes (rating 1495 vs 1579).
H2H favours Salgueiros: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Salgueiros	Cinfaes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/33/56%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +4’	2.25	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Salgueiros 3–2–1 Cinfaes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	1-0 HT 1-0	Salgueiros
07/12/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Salgueiros	0-0 HT 0-0	Cinfaes
23/03/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	2-3 HT 2-0	Salgueiros
01/09/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Salgueiros	2-1 HT 2-0	Cinfaes
11/02/18 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Salgueiros	3-0 HT 2-0	Cinfaes
30/09/17 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	1-1	Salgueiros

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
2	AD Machico	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
3	AD Camacha	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Florgrade FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Cinfaes	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Salgueiros	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
7	FC Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
8	AD Castro Daire	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
9	AD Sanjoanense	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
10	Estrela da Calheta FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Uniao de Lamas	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
12	Beira Mar	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
13	Guarda Desportiva	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
14	UD Sousense	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Salgueiros	Cinfaes
Uniao de Lamas	0-0 D	1-0 W
FC Alpendorada	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cinfaes (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Salgueiros

LDLWLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
23/08	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
18/04	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
04/04	Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
22/03	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
15/03	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-3	3	13	L
08/03	SC Vila Real Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
01/03	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

Cinfaes

DWWDDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-2	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	UD Sousense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
18/04	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	5-2	3	2	W
12/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
04/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
22/03	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
15/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	2	1	D
08/03	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	7	10	W
01/03	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
22/02	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	0	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Salgueiros vs Cinfaes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Salgueiros win (39%). Probabilities: Salgueiros 39%, draw 32%, Cinfaes 29%.

How many goals are expected in Salgueiros vs Cinfaes?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Salgueiros 1.03 · Cinfaes 0.85), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Salgueiros vs Cinfaes?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.