Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: GD Lagoa vs Serpa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

GD Lagoa1.56

Serpa1.13

1X2

46% 28% 26%

GD Lagoa Draw Serpa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

GD Lagoa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWLDLW

Serpa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

GD Lagoa 1–1–2 Serpa (4 last)

GD Lagoa5-0Serpa
Serpa2-1GD Lagoa
Serpa4-2GD Lagoa
GD Lagoa0-0Serpa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GD Lagoa 1523 · Serpa 1475

	GD Lagoa	Draw	Serpa
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GD Lagoa (rating 1523 vs 1475).
H2H favours Serpa: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GD Lagoa	Serpa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	5.8 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:32 +34’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GD Lagoa 1–1–2 Serpa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	GD Lagoa	5-0 HT 2-0	Serpa
17/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Serpa	2-1 HT 0-1	GD Lagoa
13/04/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Serpa	4-2 HT 3-1	GD Lagoa
05/01/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	GD Lagoa	0-0 HT 0-0	Serpa

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Imortal DC	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	SU Sintrense	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
3	Serpa	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
4	Amora	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
5	Juventude de Evora	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
6	GD Portel	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
7	GD Lagoa	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
8	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
9	Alcochetense	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
10	Juventude Desportiva Lajense	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sport Clube Queluz	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Santa Clara Azores B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
14	SU 1 Dezembro	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GD Lagoa	Serpa
Portimonense B	3-1 W	0-0 D
Clube Oriental Lisboa	2-0 W	1-2 L
AT Malveira	0-0 D	1-0 W
Alverca B	1-2 L	0-1 L
Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira	3-0 W	2-2 D
O Elvas	0-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: GD Lagoa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GD Lagoa

LWLDWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Santa Clara Azores B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Imortal DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	0-1	9	5	L
16/08	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Alcochetense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-2	4	9	L
12/04	Portimonense B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	3-1	2	0	W
04/04	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/03	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	5	10	D
15/03	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-2	8	4	L
08/03	Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	3	0	W
01/03	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	0-4	7	4	L

Serpa

DWDWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Vitoria Setubal Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-1	4-2	3	10	W
18/04	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
12/04	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
04/04	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-3	2	8	L
22/03	Juventude de Evora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	0-3	8	6	L
15/03	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
08/03	SU Sintrense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/03	Portimonense B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
22/02	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
15/02	Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GD Lagoa vs Serpa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a GD Lagoa win (46%). Probabilities: GD Lagoa 46%, draw 28%, Serpa 26%.

How many goals are expected in GD Lagoa vs Serpa?

The model expects 2.7 goals (GD Lagoa 1.56 · Serpa 1.13), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in GD Lagoa vs Serpa?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.