Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Alpendorada vs AD Machico

Team pages: FC Alpendorada · AD Machico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

FC Alpendorada1.16

AD Machico0.95

1X2

40% 31% 29%

FC Alpendorada Draw AD Machico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Alpendorada 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLWLL

AD Machico 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWDWD

Head-to-head

FC Alpendorada 1–2–1 AD Machico (4 last)

AD Machico2-1FC Alpendorada
FC Alpendorada2-0AD Machico
FC Alpendorada2-2AD Machico
AD Machico0-0FC Alpendorada

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Alpendorada 1505 · AD Machico 1556

	FC Alpendorada	Draw	AD Machico
Our model	39%	32%	28%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Machico (rating 1505 vs 1556).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Alpendorada	AD Machico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +9’	2.20	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Alpendorada 1–2–1 AD Machico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Machico	2-1 HT 2-1	FC Alpendorada
08/12/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	FC Alpendorada	2-0 HT 1-0	AD Machico
19/02/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	FC Alpendorada	2-2 HT 1-2	AD Machico
06/11/22 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Machico	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Alpendorada

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
2	AD Machico	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
3	AD Camacha	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Florgrade FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Cinfaes	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Salgueiros	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
7	FC Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
8	AD Castro Daire	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
9	AD Sanjoanense	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
10	Estrela da Calheta FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Uniao de Lamas	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
12	Beira Mar	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
13	Guarda Desportiva	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
14	UD Sousense	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Alpendorada	AD Machico
AD Camacha	1-2 L	1-2 L
Salgueiros	2-0 W	1-1 D
Beira Mar	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Alpendorada

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	1-3	8	6	L
23/08	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
16/08	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	3-4	5	0	L
12/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
04/04	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
22/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
15/03	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
08/03	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
01/03	Vila Mea Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	3-2	5	5	W

AD Machico

WWWLWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	9	6	D
23/08	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
15/08	Estrela da Calheta FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
18/04	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
08/04	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
22/03	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	8	5	L
15/03	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	11	W
08/03	Brito SC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	11	W
01/03	Sao Martinho Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Alpendorada vs AD Machico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Alpendorada win (40%). Probabilities: FC Alpendorada 40%, draw 31%, AD Machico 29%.

How many goals are expected in FC Alpendorada vs AD Machico?

The model expects 2.11 goals (FC Alpendorada 1.16 · AD Machico 0.95), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Alpendorada vs AD Machico?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.