Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 06/09, 18:00

Prediction: CF Os Marialvas vs Fatima

Team pages: CF Os Marialvas · Fatima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

CF Os Marialvas1.21

Fatima0.94

1X2

41% 31% 28%

CF Os Marialvas Draw Fatima

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Os Marialvas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWDLWL

Fatima 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDWWDW

Head-to-head

CF Os Marialvas 2–2 Fatima (4 last)

CF Os Marialvas2-0Fatima
Fatima2-0CF Os Marialvas
Fatima4-0CF Os Marialvas
CF Os Marialvas2-1Fatima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Os Marialvas 1512 · Fatima 1535

	CF Os Marialvas	Draw	Fatima
Our model	41%	32%	27%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Os Marialvas	Fatima
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/78/11%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +28’	2.15	3.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Os Marialvas 2–0–2 Fatima

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	CF Os Marialvas	2-0 HT 0-0	Fatima
29/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Fatima	2-0 HT 1-0	CF Os Marialvas
12/01/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Fatima	4-0 HT 2-0	CF Os Marialvas
18/08/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	CF Os Marialvas	2-1 HT 2-0	Fatima

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mortagua FC	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	UD da Serra	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Fatima	2	1	1	0	6	1	4
4	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
6	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
7	Benfica e Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
8	CF Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	AD Nogueirense	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Fazendense	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
11	Sertanense	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
12	Alverca B	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
13	GD Os Nazarenos	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	AT Malveira	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Os Marialvas	Fatima
Oliveira Hospital	1-2 L	0-2 L
AT Malveira	1-0 W	5-0 W
Juventude Desportiva Lajense	0-1 L	1-1 D
Naval 1893	0-0 D	0-1 L
Mortagua FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CF Os Marialvas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Os Marialvas

LDWWDWDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/04	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
12/04	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
04/04	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/03	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/03	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/03	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
11/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
07/03	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-3	11	3	L

Fatima

DWLLLDWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	5-0	–	–	W
16/08	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	1	1	D
18/04	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	4-1	3	8	W
12/04	Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	3-0	10	5	W
04/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	4	6	D
29/03	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
22/03	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
15/03	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
08/03	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	1	0	W
01/03	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Os Marialvas vs Fatima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Os Marialvas win (41%). Probabilities: CF Os Marialvas 41%, draw 31%, Fatima 28%.

How many goals are expected in CF Os Marialvas vs Fatima?

The model expects 2.15 goals (CF Os Marialvas 1.21 · Fatima 0.94), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Os Marialvas vs Fatima?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.