Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: Fatima vs Oliveira Hospital

Team pages: Fatima · Oliveira Hospital

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Fatima1.06

Oliveira Hospital1.22

1X2

31% 30% 39%

Fatima Draw Oliveira Hospital

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Fatima 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWWDWL

Oliveira Hospital 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLDLWW

Head-to-head

Fatima 1–4 Oliveira Hospital (5 last)

Fatima0-2Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital2-0Fatima
Fatima2-0Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital2-1Fatima
Fatima0-2Oliveira Hospital

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fatima 1509 · Oliveira Hospital 1541

	Fatima	Draw	Oliveira Hospital
Our model	31%	31%	38%
Market	31%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Oliveira Hospital: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fatima	Oliveira Hospital
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	11/78/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +7’	2.88	3.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fatima 1–0–4 Oliveira Hospital

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Fatima	0-2 HT 0-0	Oliveira Hospital
14/09/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Oliveira Hospital	2-0 HT 2-0	Fatima
10/11/19 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Fatima	2-0 HT 1-0	Oliveira Hospital
05/05/19 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Oliveira Hospital	2-1	Fatima
22/12/18 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Fatima	0-2 HT 0-1	Oliveira Hospital

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mortagua FC	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	UD da Serra	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Fatima	2	1	1	0	6	1	4
4	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
6	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
7	Benfica e Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
8	CF Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	AD Nogueirense	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Fazendense	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
11	Sertanense	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
12	Alverca B	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
13	GD Os Nazarenos	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	AT Malveira	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fatima	Oliveira Hospital
CF Os Marialvas	0-3 L	2-1 W
AT Malveira	5-0 W	1-1 D
Benfica e Castelo Branco	4-1 W	2-3 L
GD Vitoria de Sernache	2-2 D	0-0 D
Naval 1893	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fatima

WLLLDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
23/08	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	5-0	–	–	W
16/08	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	1	1	D
18/04	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	4-1	3	8	W
12/04	Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	3-0	10	5	W
04/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	4	6	D
29/03	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
22/03	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
15/03	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
08/03	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	1	0	W

Oliveira Hospital

WLDWDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
23/08	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/08	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-3	3	7	L
31/05	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
23/05	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-2	4	12	L
17/05	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-0	1	10	W
03/05	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
18/04	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	3-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fatima vs Oliveira Hospital?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Oliveira Hospital win (39%). Probabilities: Fatima 31%, draw 30%, Oliveira Hospital 39%.

How many goals are expected in Fatima vs Oliveira Hospital?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Fatima 1.06 · Oliveira Hospital 1.22), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Fatima vs Oliveira Hospital?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.