Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 08/11, 16:00
Prediction: UD da Serra vs Fatima
Team pages: UD da Serra · Fatima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
UD da Serra1.62
Fatima1.37
1X2
UD da Serra
Draw
Fatima
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
UD da Serra
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Fatima
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UD da Serra
1–1–0
Fatima
(2 last)
- UD da Serra0-0Fatima
- Fatima0-2UD da Serra
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UD da Serra 1546 · Fatima 1532
| UD da Serra | Draw | Fatima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UD da Serra | Fatima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/63/38% | 25/25/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.6 | 2.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UD da Serra 1–1–0 Fatima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | UD da Serra | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fatima |
| 10/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Fatima | 0-2 HT 0-2 | UD da Serra |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Marialvas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | O Elvas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Mortagua FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Oliveira Hospital | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Benfica e Castelo Branco | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 7 | AT Malveira | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 8 | Fatima | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 |
| 10 | Naval 1893 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Alverca B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | GD Os Nazarenos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 5 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UD da Serra | Fatima |
|---|---|---|
| CF Os Marialvas | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| AT Malveira | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| O Elvas | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Oliveira Hospital | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UD da Serra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/10 | AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
Fatima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
3-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 10 | D |
| 11/10 | GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
3-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UD da Serra vs Fatima?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UD da Serra win (42%). Probabilities: UD da Serra 42%, draw 27%, Fatima 31%.
How many goals are expected in UD da Serra vs Fatima?
The model expects 2.99 goals (UD da Serra 1.62 · Fatima 1.37), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in UD da Serra vs Fatima?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.