Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Benfica e Castelo Branco vs CF Os Marialvas

Team pages: Benfica e Castelo Branco · CF Os Marialvas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Benfica e Castelo Branco1.06

CF Os Marialvas1.36

1X2

28% 29% 43%

Benfica e Castelo Branco Draw CF Os Marialvas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Benfica e Castelo Branco 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLWLD

CF Os Marialvas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Benfica e Castelo Branco 0–4 CF Os Marialvas (4 last)

Benfica e Castelo Branco0-1CF Os Marialvas
CF Os Marialvas2-1Benfica e Castelo Branco
CF Os Marialvas1-0Benfica e Castelo Branco
Benfica e Castelo Branco1-2CF Os Marialvas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Benfica e Castelo Branco 1471 · CF Os Marialvas 1584

	Benfica e Castelo Branco	Draw	CF Os Marialvas
Our model	28%	30%	43%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CF Os Marialvas (rating 1471 vs 1584).
H2H favours CF Os Marialvas: 4-0-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Benfica e Castelo Branco	CF Os Marialvas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/63/25%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2.9 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +7’	3.10	3.20	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica e Castelo Branco 0–0–4 CF Os Marialvas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	0-1 HT 0-0	CF Os Marialvas
24/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	CF Os Marialvas	2-1 HT 1-1	Benfica e Castelo Branco
23/02/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	CF Os Marialvas	1-0 HT 0-0	Benfica e Castelo Branco
27/10/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	1-2 HT 0-1	CF Os Marialvas

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CF Os Marialvas	7	5	1	1	12	4	16
2	O Elvas	7	5	1	1	13	6	16
3	Mortagua FC	7	4	2	1	11	5	14
4	Oliveira Hospital	7	4	2	1	13	9	14
5	UD da Serra	7	3	3	1	10	8	12
6	Benfica e Castelo Branco	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
7	AT Malveira	7	2	3	2	10	11	9
8	Fatima	7	2	2	3	15	11	8
9	AD Nogueirense	7	1	5	1	11	13	8
10	Naval 1893	7	2	1	4	7	9	7
11	Alverca B	7	2	1	4	10	7	7
12	Sertanense	7	0	5	2	5	9	5
13	GD Os Nazarenos	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Fazendense	7	0	1	6	8	23	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Benfica e Castelo Branco	CF Os Marialvas
AT Malveira	2-2 D	1-0 W
Mortagua FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Naval 1893	1-4 L	0-0 D
Oliveira Hospital	3-2 W	1-2 L
Fatima	1-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CF Os Marialvas (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Benfica e Castelo Branco

WLLWLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
25/10	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-3	2	9	L
11/10	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-3	8	2	L
06/09	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
23/08	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-4	–	–	L
16/08	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	3-2	–	–	W
18/04	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-4	3	8	L
12/04	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
04/04	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	5	2	W

CF Os Marialvas

WDLWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
25/10	Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	2-1	8	2	W
11/10	Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	10	7	D
13/09	GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	3-0	0	8	W
06/09	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/08	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
12/04	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
04/04	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs CF Os Marialvas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CF Os Marialvas win (43%). Probabilities: Benfica e Castelo Branco 28%, draw 29%, CF Os Marialvas 43%.

How many goals are expected in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs CF Os Marialvas?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Benfica e Castelo Branco 1.06 · CF Os Marialvas 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs CF Os Marialvas?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.