Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Naval 1893 vs AT Malveira

Team pages: Naval 1893 · AT Malveira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Naval 18931.33

AT Malveira1.11

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Naval 1893 Draw AT Malveira

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Naval 1893 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWDLL

AT Malveira 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWDWDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naval 1893 1479 · AT Malveira 1486

	Naval 1893	Draw	AT Malveira
Our model	41%	30%	30%
Market	42%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naval 1893	AT Malveira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +20’	2.15	3.25	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CF Os Marialvas	7	5	1	1	12	4	16
2	O Elvas	7	5	1	1	13	6	16
3	Mortagua FC	7	4	2	1	11	5	14
4	Oliveira Hospital	7	4	2	1	13	9	14
5	UD da Serra	7	3	3	1	10	8	12
6	Benfica e Castelo Branco	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
7	AT Malveira	7	2	3	2	10	11	9
8	Fatima	7	2	2	3	15	11	8
9	AD Nogueirense	7	1	5	1	11	13	8
10	Naval 1893	7	2	1	4	7	9	7
11	Alverca B	7	2	1	4	10	7	7
12	Sertanense	7	0	5	2	5	9	5
13	GD Os Nazarenos	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Fazendense	7	0	1	6	8	23	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naval 1893	AT Malveira
Oliveira Hospital	0-1 L	1-1 D
Benfica e Castelo Branco	4-1 W	2-2 D
UD da Serra	1-2 L	1-1 D
GD Vitoria de Sernache	2-0 W	0-3 L
CF Os Marialvas	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Naval 1893 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naval 1893

WDWLWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	1-3	6	6	L
25/10	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
11/10	AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
13/09	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
06/09	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
23/08	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	4-1	–	–	W
16/08	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/04	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
04/04	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

AT Malveira

DLDLLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-2	10	6	D
25/10	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
11/10	Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-1	6	3	W
13/09	Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/09	GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/08	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	0-5	–	–	L
16/08	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	0-1	–	–	L
31/05	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
23/05	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
17/05	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naval 1893 vs AT Malveira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Naval 1893 win (41%). Probabilities: Naval 1893 41%, draw 29%, AT Malveira 30%.

How many goals are expected in Naval 1893 vs AT Malveira?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Naval 1893 1.33 · AT Malveira 1.11), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Naval 1893 vs AT Malveira?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.